NFL Odds – Denver vs Baltimore

Those who follow the NFL odds know the same thing the Baltimore Ravens do – that their assignment is to shut down Kyle Orton and the Denver Broncos air attack on Sunday. They figure that is altogether possible, since they’ve allowed only 55 points this season. This AFC matchup will take place at 1 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium (artificial turf) in Baltimore. In the NFL odds that have been posted on this game, the Ravens are a seven-point favorite, with an over-under of 39 points. 

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Denver Broncos (2-2 SU & ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Live at M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD
Sunday, October 10 –  1 PM ET
TV:  CBS

NFL Odds:
Baltimore -7
Denver +7
Total 39

Here are some of the trends as they relate to the NFL odds on this game:

• Denver has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
• Denver has lost six of its last eight games SU
• Denver has lost five of its last seven road games SU
• Denver has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
• Baltimore has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• Baltimore has won five of its last seven games SU
• Baltimore has won five of its last six home games SU
• Baltimore has played eight of its last 12 home games UNDER the total

Key stats for Denver — The Broncos, who used to run so well when Mike Shanahan was the head coach, have averaged just 2.2 yards a carry this season. Much of that has to do with the fact that Knowshon Moreno has not been available for a couple of these games, but he’s got only 111 yards on 39 carries. Kyle Orton, however, has averaged 8.1 yards an attempt, and that is fourth among NFL quarterbacks. His 1419 yards through four games is the most ever for an NFL quarterback in the first four games of a season. Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd is averaging 18.2 yards per catch this season. Six players have ten receptions or more, and that balance certainly improves their chances in the NFL odds.

Key stats for Baltimore — The Ravens have allowed 13.8 points per game, and that is fifth best in the NF. Opponents however, are averaging four yards per carry, and almost 117 yards per game on the ground. Joe Flacco has completed 57% of his passes and has been intercepted six times. Baltimore’s big off-season acquisition, wide receiver Anquan Boldin, has caught 27 passes for 355 yards, so he’s been worth every penny so far.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL odds on this game:

• Denver has won 15 of the last 22 meetings SU
• Baltimore has covered six of the last seven meetings
• Six of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Baltimore has won five of the last seven meetings SU
• Six of the last seven meetings in Baltimore have gone UNDER the total
• Baltimore has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team

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Orton’s hot hand is no accident, as his team is operating for the most part with a patchwork running game that has had to utilize Correll Buckhalter and newly-acquired Lawrence Maroney but in reality hasn’t really tried that hard to achieve balance. So far, no sign of Tim Tebow. As we speak of NFL odds, what are the odds that this one-dimensional quality makes it easier for the Ravens to construct a defensive game plan? It’s altogether possible, but it’s more difficult than stacking the "box" for a run-first team. You might be surprised to find out that the Ravens have intercepted only one pass this year. This would have been a good spot for them to have the availability of a guy like Ed Reed, but the All-Pro safety and former Defensive Player of the Year will be out for several more weeks.

What Orton and coach Josh McDaniels have been able to accomplish without that running game has been nothing short of sensational, as those who analyze NFL odds also consider that the big "play-maker" in the receiving corps, Brandon Marshall, is no longer in the fold. But they’ve been getting it done with Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Demariyus Thomas and Eddie Royal, so who is to argue with the efficiency of McDaniels’ concept? Joe Flacco has not completed as many passes, although he’s been going down the field more than he’s done in the past. You can’t quarrel with what Boldin has done so far, but TJ Houshmandzadeh hasn’t been involved enough, and Donte Stallworth hasn’t gotten onto the field yet. Somewhere in this mix, the running game has suffered. This team averages only three yards a pop. The Ravens don’t look like to kind of team that can create a lot of distance between itself and the opponent; even in their three wins, it looked as if the other team was in a position to win the game. Now, with Orton and the Broncos liable to be gun-slinging ’till the very end, there is less of a chance for that gap to widen. We’re taking the points with Denver in the NFL odds for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  DENVER +7 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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