NFL Odds – Colts Looks to Continue Dominance of Texans

Those who like to take their chances against the NFL odds are mindful that the Indianapolis Colts have been dominant over the Houston Texans throughout the years, and they will look to continue that on Sunday when they take the trip to the Lone Star State. The game is slated to begin at 1 PM ET at Reliant Stadium (natural turf) in Houston. The Colts, who are the defending AFC champions, are listed as a two-point road favorite in the latest NFL odds, and the over-under on the game is a robust 48 points.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Live at Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX
Sunday, September 12 — 1 PM ET
TV:  Fox

NFL Odds:
Indianapolis -2
Houston +2
Total:  48

Here are some of the trends as they impact our football betting prediction on this game:

• Indianapolis has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won 16 of its last 19 games SU
• Indianapolis has won seven of its last eight road games SU
• Indianapolis has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• Houston has covered two of its last seven games
• Houston has played nine of its last 13 games UNDER the total
• Houston has won four of its last five games SU
• Houston has won 14 of its last 20 home games SU

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The NFL odds make the Indianapolis Colts a very solid favorite (-170, in fact) to win the AFC South this year. Honestly, who the hell are you going to pick? The Colts have won at least 12 games for seven seasons in a row. They did their regular laydown during the pre-season, showing upcoming opponents absolutely nothing out of the playbook, and leaving the second halves of games in the hands of Curtis Painter (loud guffaws heard around the room).

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We don’t have to go over a bunch of statistics to demonstrate that Peyton Manning is a madman, and I think he is confident that Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday (knee injury) and Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark (undisclosed injury) will be in the lineup. Their presence certainly improves the NFL odds that they’ll get back to the Super Bowl. Anthony Gonzalez is also on hand to add some depth to the receiving corps, although the former first-round draft pick is a bit unhappy hat coach Jim Caldwell did not give him a chance to beat out Pierre Garcon at one of the wideout spots.

Here are some of the head-to-head betting trends with regard to the NFL odds:

• Nine of the last ten meetings have gone OVER the total
• Houston has covered five of the last seven meetings
• Indianapolis has won the last six meetings SU
• The last five meetings in Houston have gone OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won seven of the last eight meetings SU as the road team

Houston is a +350 shot in the NFL odds to win the AFC South, and though they have never made the playoffs, they posted their first winning record last season. Gary Kubiak went out on a limb to make a deal for Matt Schaub to quarterback his team, and with 4770 yards passing in 2009, he proved to be Kubiak’s kind of guy. What really gets Kubiak’s goat is that the Texans were not able to provide the proper mix of the running game to balance the offense. Steve Slaton had a spectacular rookie year, but not so much in his sophomore campaign, and Kubiak wanted to grab an insurance policy with Ben Tate out of Auburn, but now they’re paying off on insurance claims because Tate is out with an ankle injury. Arian Foster and Slaton will carry the load, and Houston does not take a lot of pressure off superstar WR Andre Johnson.

The Colts have demonstrated a lot of mastery over Houston, winning fifteen of the 16 meetings the two teams have played. The Texans have fundamental problems with pass pressure because they cannot get to the quick-thinking Manning. The "X" factor is Indy safety Bob Sanders, who is back for another go at it after missing most of last season with an injury, and he was really banging heads in pre-season action. Judging from the way the Colts have handled things in this series, the NFL odds are being generous to them. So our football betting prediction for Sunday will go the way of Indianapolis.

JAY’S PLAY:  INDIANAPOLIS -2 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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