NFL Odds – Battle of the Manning Brothers

Those who challenge the NFL odds know that one of the attractions of Sunday night’s NFL action is a battle between the Manning brothers. They also know that the Indianapolis Colts need to patch things up on the defensive line to avoid last week’s disaster in Houston. They will play host to the New York Giants in action that begins at 8:20 PM ET on NBC at Lucas Oil Stadium (artificial turf) in Indianapolis. In the NFL odds for this game, the Colts are a 4.5-point favorite, with the total posted at 48.5 points.

New York Giants (1-0 SU & ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1 SU & ATS)
Live at Lucas Oil Stadium
Sunday, September 19 — 8:20 PM ET
TV: NBC

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NFL Odds:
Indianapolis -4.5
N.Y. Giants +4.5
Total 48.5

For the Colts, who are the -125 favorites in the NFL odds to win the AFC South, there may understandably be a little panic after last Sunday’s game against Houston, when Arial Foster, an undrafted second-year player, ran for 231 of the Texans’ 257 rushing yards. Yeah, I would say that’s a problem, and it has the potential to stay that way now that Indy will be without the services of Bob Sanders, who tore his biceps again and may miss the rest of the season. It seemed to be a party for the Houston offense, which only needed to get 17 passes from Matt Schaub with the running game so potent.

The Giants had talked a lot about retooling a defensive unit that had completely collapsed last season. Last Sunday in the opener against Carolina by holding Panther quarterbacks to 40% completions and 3.7 yards a carry, while recording four sacks and forcing five turnovers in the process of covering in the NFL odds as a six-point favorite. Perry Fewell, the new defensive coordinator, likes to think he is bringing some intensity to the unit, and the players trust him a lot more than his predecessor, Bill Sheridan, who was ford after the Giants gave up more than 40 points in three of the last four games.

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL odds on this game:

• New York has played its last six games OVER the total
• New York has lost eight of its last 12 games SU
• New York has covered three of its last 12 games
• New York has lost four of its last five road games SU
• New York has won 18 of its last 25 road games SU
• New York has covered one of its last five road games
• New York has played four of its last five road games

• Indianapolis has lost four of its last six games SU
• Indianapolis has won 16 of its last 20 games SU
• Indianapolis has covered two of its last six games
• Indianapolis has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won 15 of its last 17 home games SU

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The spotlight, or most of it anyway, will be focused on the matchup between the two quarterbacks here. The Colts’ misfortune last week didn’t prevent Peyton Manning from being effective, and he threw for 433 yards and three TD’s, completing 40 passes. He connected with Austin Collie and Dallas Clark on 22 of those passes. Suffice it to say that the Colts’ passing game is not in bad shape, and that appears to be their best chance to beat the NFL odds. It is not inconceivable that Peyton can beat the Giants on his arm alone.

So what to do about that play on the defensive line? The Giants hardly unleashed their running attack on Carolina, totaling just 118 yards. Yet we know that the combination of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs is capable of so much more. The difficulty with opposing ground games is nothing necessarily new; teams that run with a lot of power have often been able to push Indy back, and when the Colts have been the most effective has been when they have had Sanders to step up from his safety position in run support. That obviously isn’t going to happen here.

With the Colts laying 4.5 points in the NFL odds, you’ve got to reference the team’s ability to cover the number while playing in their relatively new palace, and they have covered just five of 15 since they have occupied Lucas Oil Stadium. Do the Giants possess the capacity to control the ball and keep Peyton off the field? Yes. Do they have the ability to line up multiple receivers to challenge the Colts’ secondary? Sure. Do they have the wherewithal on defense to slow Peyton down a little? Well, they’ve got more of that than Houston, and they should be able to get some pressure going in their pass rush. We still like Indy to win the AFC South, and win it relatively easy, but the NFL is comprised of situations, and this one might favor the visitor. We’ll take the points with the Giants in the NFL odds for Sunday night’s NBC game.

JAY’S PLAY: N.Y. GIANTS +4.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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