NFL – NFC Championship Receiver Analysis

The Saints have been spreading the wealth between Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey but there’s a whole freight load of receivers from the Big Easy that are getting the love too. Devery Henderson, David Thomas, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore are other receivers in the Saints passing attack that have scored touchdowns. It’s a definite contrast to the way the Vikings’ passing attack has found its success. One man – Sidney Rice – has been the most prolific receiver in Mimnesota, reminding so many of the great Cris Carter and the incumbant Randy Moss.

Both receiving units have great quarterbacks, and that fact can’t be disputed. But which set of receivers is more likely to come up big in the NFC Championship Game? With one of the biggest NFL playoff betting TOTALS I’ve seen in a while, those of you that are chasing the OVER have to be confident in both aerial attacks.

So who ya got?

Depth

Let’s get the easiest category out of the way. The Vikings had just 5 receivers that caught more than one touchdown. The Saints had 9 guys do just that. This is an open and shut category, not just because the Saints have more variety and a breadth of talent, but they also have a quarterback who can take advantage of it in Drew Brees.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Statistical Output

Minnesota threw for 4,156 yards this season while the Saints threw for 4,355 yards. Both teams had 34 touchdown notches on their aerial assault belts. And while Brett Favre is notorious for throwing interceptions, the Vikings totaled just 7 picks in the regular season while the Saints piled up 12. Turnovers are a huge momentum swinger to say the least, especially when the Saints rely so heavily their vaunted and powerful passing attack.

So let’s dig a little deeper. The longest pass the Saints had was a 75 yard bomb to Devery Henderson against the Saints in what was the easiest touchdown of the year for New Orleans. Not to be outdone, the Vikings’ leading receiver, Sidney Rice, scored a 63 yards bomb against the Ravens tough pass coverage.

The averages are even tighter. Brees and the Saints averaged 8.3 yards per pass and 272 yards per game, while Favre trails just behind that with 8.0 yards per pass and 260 yards a game.

It’s a close race, but the Saints get the edge despite the horrendous turnover differential in comparison to the Vikings.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Marquee Receiver – Marques Colston vs. Sidney Rice

No single player on the Vikings has personally benefited from the arrival of Brett Favre than Sidney Rice, who caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. He has erupted as a deep threat and virtually impossible to cover in man-on –man coverage. Last week Rice caught 6 passes for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns and nearly added a fourth.

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Colston’s numbers take a hit because Brees does such an efficient job of spreading out passes amongst all of his receivers. Yet one number strikes the difference between Colston and Rice. Marques was targeted 106 times and caught 70 passes, catching 66 percent of the balls thrown his way. It’s a very slight edge, but Rice caught 68 percent of his passes (83 of 122 targets) and his ability to catch jump balls gives him the final, definitive edge over Colston.

Edge: Minnesota’s Sidney Rice

X-Factor – Robert Meachem vs. Bernard Berrian

Berrian has largely been a ghost this season, and not based on his talent. He fails to reel in passes. He’s supposed to be the top deep threat on the team but Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice have already ripped that role out of his hands.

The x-factor on either team is supposed to be a guy who can crack open a nail biting score and the guy that has proven he can do it his number’s called is Meachem. Nothing stands out to me more than him ripping the hands out of a Redskins defender who had intercepted a pass, and roaring in to the end zone.

Edge: New Orleans’ Robert Meachem

Tight End – Jeremy Shockey vs. Visanthe Shiancoe

Shockey is the bigger “star” of the two, but Shiancoe blew his opposing tight end out of the water in terms of production this season. With 11 touchdowns compared to Shockey’s 3 scores, it’s a hands down case of Brett Favre establishing a rock solid relationship with yet another tight end.

Edge: Minnesota Vikings

Utility Threat – Reggie Bush vs. Percy Harvin

In terms of trick plays, Harvin is one of the best in the business. The former Gator is perhaps the fastest guy on the field at all times, and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, as a deep threat or run reverses has made the guessing game against a usually predictable Minnesota offense all that more difficult to defend.

But for me, Reggie is coming in to his own. He has shown reliable hands out of the backfield and he is simply bigger, stronger and much more difficult to tackle because of his size. His 83 yards punt return for a touchdown against the Cardinals is the kind of play that keeps special teams coaches curled up in a sweaty ball of fear at night.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

FINAL VERDICT – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

It’s a very close matchup, but when it comes to thinning out defensive coverage and getting big plays from their astute role players, the Saints have the edge. Against the 19th ranked pass defense in the league, the Saints can find ways to move the ball through the air and score. The one thing they have to stay away from is turnovers, which means their receivers have to be able to fight for the ball in the air.

As you can see from this analysis, it’s a very tight race and almost all the categories are decided by a virtual coin flip. It’s a battle of depth slamming right in to star power. The only distinct advantage for Minnesota is that New Orleans ranks just 26th against the pass. They may not have as much flare as New Orleans, but against this weekend’s opposing secondary you can be sure Minnesota will have just as many chances to run up the score and smash the OVER.

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