NFL MVP Race – Tom Brady Leads Pack

If you want a long-term bet to suck on for the next eight months, check out our MVP futures for NFL betting. Tom Brady leads the way in terms of what the oddsmakers think, but too many immeasurable metrics stand in the way of the future League Leader in Smiles. So who are my idiotic picks? Read on, faithful followers of the Furious One!

Oh, and before we get started, I’ll write somewhere along the way why none of these will deserve to be in the conversation: LaDanian Tomlinson (soft, over the hill), Kurt Warner (too damn old), Tony Romo (a born loser), Philip Rivers (same) or The Mannings (one’s team is slightly overrated, the other is an overrate player).

1. Ben Roethlisberger (+900)
Big Ben will never standout as a numbers guy. He was just 24th overall with an 80.1 quarterback rating, and amassed 3,301 yards and 17 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. But the reason that Roethlisberger stands as my league MVP is due to his undaunted leadership.

The Steelers play for Big Ben, and Roethlisberger may be insulated by some amazing players like Willie Parker and Hines Ward, but he’s the guy that makes the Steelers go. If Pittsburgh can overcome the Super Bowl Hangover and return to the championship game, it will because of Big Ben’s leadership, though his numbers may not back his case. Either way, I’m calling attention to Big Ben for his intangibles, which don’t get enough credit when too many quarterbacks saunter in to the league with all the measurable skill you like to see in a quarterback.

2. Adrian Peterson (+600)
This is contingent on Brett Favre coming to the Vikings. If he does, teams will respect both Favre and Berrian so much that Peterson has the potential to explode for 2,000 rushing yards. If that’s the case, and the Vikings make the playoffs, then Peterson is a mortal lock for the MVP.

3. Tom Brady (+400)
Brady is two seasons removed from his record setting, 4,806 passing yard, 50 touchdown season. But a nasty ACL injury in Week 1 last season to his pivot leg has me worried he can recreate the magic with Randy Moss. My favorite Sunday activity will be sitting right next to any diehard Patriots fans and watching their reaction when Brady is sacked. It must be what it’s like to be a parent when your kid is playing rugby with zero athletic ability and $4,000 worth of braces in their mouth.

4. Andre Johnson (???)
Why is Andre Johnson not in the rankings? I have to get on the oddsmakers about this. Larry Fitzgerald (+1400) and Randy Moss (+1600) are the receivers leading the pack, but it’s Johnson that led the league last year in receiving yards. With 1,575 yards, he had over 100-more-yards than Fitzgerald and Steve Smith. Though he only had 8 touchdowns, the electric receiver of the Houston Texans led the league in both yards and catches. Keep an eye on this sleeper.

5. Brian Westbrook (???)
Donavan McNabb is in the race as a +1400 favorite, but Westbrook is the running-back that makes the Philadelphia Eagles chug chug chug. With 1,338 total yards from scrimmage, 54 catches, 14 total touchdowns and 4.6 yards per carry in his career, Westbrook is one of the best all-round footballers in the game. Will he get the attention he deserves? Likely not. Even our oddsmakers don’t have him on the MVP radar. But the attention hog that is McNabb has much to do with that, and I expect Westbrook to step out of McNabb’s arrogant shadow this year and challenge for the MVP.

6. Matt Ryan (+2000)
Avoid the sophomore slump, lead the Falcons to playoff glory and improve on last year’s numbers will put Ryan in the pantheon of current elite NFL quarterbacks. Last season he threw for 3,440 yards, 11 touchdowns and had a rating of 87.7 in his rookie year. If he can use Tony Gonzlez and Roddy White to breach the 20 touchdown mark and throw for 4,000 yards or more you’re looking at a guy who can crack the top-5 in the MVP race with ease.

7. Aaron Rodgers (+3000)
Name a guy who finished in the top-7 of all quarterbacks in terms of rating, total yards and total touchdowns. Well one of those names will invariably be Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay, whose team experienced so much bad luck last season during games that it made Patriots fans feel sorry for them. A return to glory for the Packers means Rodgers, the new face of the franchise, getting thrust in to the MVP favorites. As far as long odds go, there’s no better bet.