NFL Must Win Pick Rams @ Falcons

The St. Louis Rams (2-13 SU, 5-10 ATS, 6-8-1 O/U) have dropped nine straight games, but are almost out of their misery as their 2008 NFL regular season finale approaches.

The Atlanta Falcons (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 6-9 O/U) are the toast of the town after reaching the playoffs just one season after a national scandal rocked their franchise.

On Sunday, both teams will be looking to pick up victories when they meet at the Georgia Dome.

The Rams lost to the revitalized San Francisco 49ers 17-16 in Week 16 but covered the spread as a 3.5-point home underdog last week as veteran quarterback Marc Bulger threw for 227 yards with one touchdown and an interception for St. Louis while running back Steve Jackson rushed for 108 yards on 32 carries.

The Rams (2-13) blew a 10-point halftime lead for the second consecutive week and equaled the franchise’s record for its longest losing streak since moving to St. Louis in 1995.

"I don’t know if we’re cursed," running back Steven Jackson said. "But you know, I mean, it hurts. It hurts when you feel like you’ve outplayed your opponent literally for almost eight quarters going back to last week."

Coach Jim Haslett was more succinct, saying "We gave the game away."

The Falcons are coming off a 24-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, covering the spread for BetOnline NFL online betting backers as a 3.5-point road underdog in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 13 of 24 passes for 134 yards with one touchdown while running back Michael Turner rushed for 70 yards on 19 carries with one touchdown.

"We set milestones and we’ve reached those milestones at a much quicker pace than we had anticipated," Falcons head coach Mike Smith said.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 5 games

St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta

The total has gone OVER in 12 of St. Louis’s last 16 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

NFL Odds

St. Louis Rams +15 -110

Atlanta Falcons -15 -110

Over44 -110

Under 44 -110

Analysis: I’ll come right out and say that I’ll be flat-out shocked if the Falcons don’t blow the lowly Rams completely out of the water in this contest! Simply put, take the Falcons to cover the spread with room to spare.

NFL Free Picks: Falcons -15 Points/Over 44 Total Points