NFL Monday Night Props – A Tale of Two Quarterbacks

In many ways, as we look at the NFL betting Monday night props, the game between the San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos is a tale of two quarterbacks.

Phillip Rivers is someone who is regarded as one of the best in the National Football League, while Kyle Orton has demonstrated that he can thrive in the kind of system that showcases his talents.

There are plenty of NFL Monday night props offered on these two players for the game.

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The over-under on Orton’s passing yards is 286.5, while 300.5 is the number of Rivers. In the game itself, the Chargers are favored by 8.5 points, with a total of 50 points posted on the board.

Denver Broncos (3-6 SU & ATS) at San Diego Chargers (4-5 SU & ATS)

Live at Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Monday, November 22 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

NFL Odds:

San Diego -8.5

Denver +8.5

Total 50

NFL Monday Night props

KYLE ORTON – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 286.5 yards -115

Under 286.5 yards -115

Kyle Orton is a quarterback who, like Drew Brees before him, came out of Joe Tiller’s system at Purdue, which was based on a lot of short passes and quick decisions. I think that Orton’s perception around the NFL was shaped by what he did in his rookie season, when he was sent in before he was really ready, suffered 13 interceptions, and became known as a player who was better at "managing" the game than anything else. His last season in Chicago was pretty good, as he threw 18 TD’s with only 12 interceptions, and he has thrived under Josh McDaniels in Denver, throwing 37 TD passes with just 17 interceptions since being installed as the starting quarterback. Now he’s getting some respect, and it seems almost ridiculous that at the beginning of training camp, he really could have been in danger of having to win the job all over again, with Denver having acquired Brady Quinn in a trade and drafting Tim Tebow in the first round.

As we get to talking about the NFL Monday night props, you have to acknowledge that this guy has played through a lot of injuries, and in this season anyway, the lack of a real effective running game, with very little in reserve behind Knowshon Moreno, who has been hurt. Even so, Orton was on pace to set a new NFL record for passing yards (currently held by Dan Marino) and did so even without Brandon Marshall, who was dealt to Miami. Receivers like Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney, who had not done anything special previously in their NFL careers, suddenly became big-play people. Orton is averaging 312 yards a game through the air. However, I see it as a problem getting to 287 (which would constitute an "over" in the NFL Monday night props) against a San Diego team that is limiting opponents to 275 TOTAL yards per game this season. Also, Moreno is back in action, went over 100 yards against Kansas City in the 49-29 win last week, and so we will probably see more balance. Orton had 296 yards against the Chiefs, but that was against a secondary that was missing some people.

NFL MONDAY NIGHT PROPS PICK: ORTON UNDER 286.5 YARDS **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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NFL Monday Night props

PHILLIP RIVERS – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 300.5 Yards -120

Under 300.5 Yards -110

Do you remember when Eli Manning announced that he was not going to go to San Diego in the draft? Well, the Chargers wound up with Phillip Rivers instead, and I think they are pleased with that decision, though Rivers has not brought his team to a Super Bowl. But in the AFC betting title game a few seasons ago, he got a lot of respect when he went in there with a severe knee injury, while LaDainian Tomlinson dogged it. Rivers has been a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback sever since, and he’s having another great season. Yes, he has thrown eight interceptions, while he had only nine all of last year, but he is averaging 327 yards a game, which is a career-high (and an important figure as we evaluate this NFL Monday night prop. He’s had to deal with a lot of injuries in his receiving corps, not to mention the absence of a Pro Bowl player like Vincent Jackson. In short, he looks like a guy who is getting to that elite level.

In other words, he can reach numbers like those laid out in the NFL Monday night prop under circumstances that are somewhat less than ideal. He does get receivers Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee back this week, and he ought to have Antonio Gates at his disposal, which puts him in better shape then he was before. And he works against a Denver defense that has had its secondary depleted, doesn’t bring much of a pass rush (13 sacks) and has allowed almost eight yards an attempt. We’re going "over" in this NFL Monday night prop.

NFL MONDAY NIGHT PROPS PICK: RIVERS OVER 300.5 YARDS (-120) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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