NFL Lock Alert – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 SU & ATS) at Cleveland Browns (0-3 SU & ATS)

Sunday, October 4 – 1 PM ET

BetOnline NFL betting odds:  CINCINNATI -6, Total 38

In the BetOnline NFL football betting odds, the Bengals are listed as a six-point favorite, with a posted total of 38 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• CIN has won and covered five of its last six games
• CIN has covered six of its last 19 games
• CIN has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• CIN has covered two of its last six road games
• CIN has lost 15 of its last 19 road games SU
• CIN has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• CLEV has lost its last nine games SU
• CLEV is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games
• CLEV has played four of its five games UNDER the total
• CLEV has covered one of its last six home games
• CLEV has lost its last six home games SU
• CLEV has played eight of its last 12 home games UNDER the total

Also…

• CIN has covered four of the last six meetings
• CIN has won seven of the last nine meetings SU
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• CIN has won and covered four of the last six meetings as the road team
• Eight of the last ten meetings in Cleveland have gone UNDER the total

There appears to be some debate over whether the Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders or Cleveland Browns are worse. Well, if this answers your question, the Browns are headed toward being one of the worst teams since the merger. In losing their last nine games, they have scored a total of 60 points, and in only one of those games have they scored an offensive touchdown.

Cleveland’s receivers don’t catch a lot of passes, but Eric Mangini has caught a lot of hell from the press, because he hasn’t changed things very much at all in terms of results, and is generally considered to have mishandled the quarterback situation, where he didn’t name a starter until right before the last pre-season game and is already making a switch from Brady Quinn (61%, 3 INT’s) to Derek Anderson, who relieved Quinn in the second half of Sunday’s 34-3 loss to Baltimore and tossed three pickoffs.

Yeah, on top of that they’ve got people hurt.

Jamal Lewis is slowed down with a hamstring injury. I’m not sure Lewis’ presence significantly upgrades what Cleveland does, but without him there is almost nothing to draw on, as the Browns have Jerome Harrison and low draft choice James Davis and nothing else in reserve. Kicker Phil Dawson has a calf injury. Dawson’s absence is almost moot, as rarely are the Browns in a position to kick a field goal and certainly aren’t in the market for someone to kick extra points.

Anderson made it to the Pro Bowl a couple of years ago, but since then he has lost almost all his weapons and watched as the organization gave him one "no confidence" vote after another. Not to make any excuses for him – Anderson was known to be very prone to interceptions, as far back as his college days at Oregon State. However, he was able to get the ball deep down the field in his first season as Cleveland’s starter. That doesn’t seem to be the case now.

Joe Posnanski, writing for the Sports Illustrated website, called Mangini "the worst coaching hire in the NFL in the past 25 years." Well, that may be up for debate. How about the guy who Mangini inherited this mess from (Romeo Crennel)?

It’s no coincidence that the Browns have failed to cover their last seven games. After giving up 184 rushing yards a game, we have little doubt that the Bengals can establish some balance behind Cedric Benson (293 yards, 4.4 ypc). The Bengals have to be brimming with confidence after a comeback against the Super Bowl champion Steelers (breaking an eight-game losing streak to them) which came on the heels of a win at Lambeau Field.

There’s really only one side in this one. We’ll move with Cincinnati, the six-point favorite in the BetOnline NFL pro football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  CINCINNATI -6 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)