NFL Lock Alert –Saints and Bills to Play OVER the Total

New Orleans Saints (-5½) vs. Buffalo Bills (+5½)
O/U (52½)
Sunday, September 27 4:00 PM ET

The high-powered New Orleans Saints (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U) will look to keep their untarnished record intact when they take to the gridiron at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday at 4 PM ET. They’ll face the ‘new-look’ Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U) who have looked very strong on offense themselves after two games.

The Saints laid an emphatic 48-22 smackdown on Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite in Week 2 while the game’s 70 total points played well Over the 46-point over/under total.

All-Pro quarterback Drew Brees looked like he was in midseason form as he completed 25 of 34 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while Marques Colston caught eight passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

The Bills jumped all over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, winning 33-20 as a 4-point favorite in Week 2 while the game’s 53 total points played Over the 42-point O/U total.

Quarterback Trent Edwards completed 21 of 31 passes for 230 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while Terrell Owens and Lee Evans each added touchdown grabs in the victory.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick.

• Over is 4- 1 in Saints last 5 games as a favorite.
• Over is 13- 4 in Saints last 17 games as a road favorite.
• Over is 20-7-1 in Saints last 28 games overall.
• Over is 4- 1 in Bills last 5 games overall.
• Over is 5- 2 in Bills last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
• Bills are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

NFL Odds

• New Orleans Saints -5½ -110
• Buffalo Bills +5½ -110
• Over 52½ -110
• Under 52½ -110

Analysis: With the Saints averaging 46.5oints per contest and the Bills putting up 28.5 points per contest, I like the over first and foremost in this contest.

I really don’t think the O/U outcome is going to be in doubt as both teams have left a lot to be desired defensively so far this season with the Saints allowing 24.5 points per contest and Buffalo giving up an average of 22.5 points per contest.

The Over has gone a solid 4- 1 in the Saints’ last five games as a favorite and 13- 4 in their last 17 games as a road favorite, not to mention an absolutely incendiary 20-7- 1 in New Orleans’ last 28 games overall.

Buffalo has also played Over their set O/U totals in four of their last five games while the over has also cashed in for the Bills in five of their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record.

I also like the Saints to win this game despite being on the road, while covering the spread by the skin of their collective teeth.

The Saints have gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and a blistering 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

The Bills have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog, but I believe their 2-8 ATS against a team with a winning record will come back to haunt them in this contest.

Play the Over first and foremost and then the Saints to cover the NFL betting line narrowly.

NFL Free Picks: Over 52½ Total Points/Saints -5½ Points