NFL Lines and Betting for Week Three

I guess sometimes it’s better to jump early on the NFL betting lines than it is to wait and see what everyone else is doing.

Last week I went 2-1-1 ATS in my four early week picks, and switched gears at the last second in the Pittsburgh-Tennessee tilt because I was unsure of the Steelers’ defense.

Whoops. As far as these games go, I’m not changing my tune like that again, barring injury.

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(HOME TEAM in caps, line subject to change)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Buffalo Bills

Let’s see…Patriots returning home after losing in embarrassing fashion to the division rival Jets on national television against the worst team in the league? Yeah, this is probably one of the easier NFL lines to pick on the board.

I wouldn’t be scared of the spread in this one because Brady will clean up the mistakes he made by over and under throwing his receivers, especially Moss.

As for the Bills, they’re looking for a “spark” by inserting Ryan Fitzpatrick in at quarterback. Sorry, but the only spark they’ll see is the Patriots burning down the scoreboard and securing a football betting victory for all of their backers on the NFL game line.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANNEERS (+2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

This is one of the tougher games to grade on the board. It’s easy to get excited about Joshua Freeman and the Bucs’ 2-0 SU start, but they haven’t played a strong team yet. And Tampa ranks 24th with just 280.5 total yards per game and 17th in points.

On top of that, Tampa’s allowed the 15th most yards per game thus far with 309.0 yards against while playing lowly Carolina and Cleveland.

So why am I backing the Buccaneers? Mostly it’s just a hunch. I crunch numbers and use my system as a guideline (just like all of you should be doing) but something in the air has me feeling off about the Steelers. The bubble has to burst on this team eventually before Big Ben comes back, and I think the Bucs have a few needles in the haystack to do just that.

Detroit Lions (+10.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Whoa…seriously? Yes seriously! The Lions have been blown out in the first three quarters of each game thus far, but have done a great job of closing in on the spread in the fourth quarter in losses to Chicago and Philadelphia. That’s why they’re 2-0 ATS thus far.

It’s hardly enough to make me feel like Shaun Hill can upset Brett Favre and the Vikings on the road, but that spread will likely get bigger once the NFL betting public weighs in. Detroit ranks 30th in total yards allowed, but I think Jahvid Best and Calvin Johnson will give Hill enough relief in the fourth quarter to close in on this spread.

Either the sharps pull this line down and strip it of its value, or you do the smart thing and secure this line for yourself early.

Think of it this way: if Minnesota builds a lead like they should, and Detroit starts roaring back, do you think they’re going to leave it to Favre to start scoring late touchdowns? Hell no. They’ll rely on their defense and run the ball while Detroit makes another stiff effort against a division rival.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.0) over Dallas Cowboys

Are you ready for a good, old fashioned, Texas shootout? Well look elsewhere because I’ve lost all faith in the winless Cowboys. Houston is a team on the rise.

It may be early in the season, but this is what they’ve done so far: protected a lead with a stout rushing game against Indy, and come from behind with a lethal passing attack against Washington. What more could you ask from your team?

The schedule makers didn’t give Houston any favors by front loading their schedule, but this team is in a groove and I wouldn’t be caught betting against them. This is one of those sports betting bandwagons that’s actually justified.

As for Dallas, what can you say? I think the mystique surrounding Tony Romo has finally tumbled straight in to hell. Fact is that Wade Phillips is leaning on Romo way too much, and cycling through his tailbacks isn’t working. Let Felix Jones grind up the field between the twenties and unleash Marion Barber in the red zone already!

Until Dallas proves they can be consistent on the field, they’re a dangerous bet…especially on the road.

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