NFL Insider – A whole new Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL SNEAK PEEK: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

After twelve games last season, Tampa Bay looked very much like a team that was ready to go back to the playoffs. With a 9-3 record, they were favorites for the NFC South title, but then things fell apart, and the Bucs dropped the last four games on the schedule to end things up with a 9-7 record (8-8 ATS), missing the playoffs and ultimately getting both coach Jon Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen.

Can a 33-year-old head coach get this team to the playoffs?

First, let’s take a look at the numbers:

BetOnline Sportsbook Odds

To Win NFC South

New Orleans Saints +190

Carolina Panthers +230

Atlanta Falcons +220

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +450

To Win Super Bowl: +5000

To Win NFC title: +2500

To Reach Conference title game: +900

Over 6.5 wins +120

Under 6.5 wins -150

Evidently the Bucs’ ownership got tired of Jon Gruden’s act, and felt that an infusion of youth would be the answer. So they turned to a 33-year-old who had never even been a coordinator in the NFL. Raheem Morris has pressure on him, not so much to get this team to the next level (the Bucs made it to the playoffs in 2007) but to maintain a record over .500. He brings in two new coordinators and jettisoned some veterans who had been very familiar to the Tampa Bay audience, running back Warrick Dunn and linebacker Derrick Brooks. Yes, it is a changing of the guard.

The changing of the guard also involves Morris’ biggest decision, which is what to do with the quarterback position. Jeff Garcia is gone, and the team chose to spend a first-round draft pick on Kansas State signal-caller Josh Freeman, who has plenty of size (6’6", 245) but is a work in progress. Luke McCown, who’s never been a winner anywhere, and Byron Leftwich, who is still trying to resurrect his career, will be the seat-warmers…perhaps. The conventional wisdom is that Freeman will eventually work his way into the lineup, but not right away.

Derrick Ward, who gained 1025 yards for the Giants last year, was acquired as a free agent, and the Bucs hope he can do for them what Michael Turner did for the Atlanta Falcons in 2008. He was a hidden gem, and complemented Brandon Jacobs well, and he’ll find himself working alongside Earnest Graham, who gained 563 yards last year, and Cadillac Williams, who has been beset by injuries the last two years.

Antonio Bryant had a big breakout season in ’08 (83 catches, 1248 yards), but that was mostly while connecting with Garcia. What he’ll do with a youngster like Freeman is anybody’s guess. The other wide receivers are so-so, and that means the acquisition of tight end Kellen Winslow, who when healthy gained 1106 yards for the Browns in 2007.

Tampa Bay’s secondary is going to challenge receivers more this season, and Ronde Barber and second-year man Aqib Talib have the potential to make for a pretty nice tandem. Jim Bates, who has been brought in as the new defensive coordinator, will rotate a lot of defensive linemen, and one of them is going to be Roy Miller, the third-round draft pick out of Texas, who is aggressive and strong and will support starting defensive tackles Ryan Sims and Chris Hovan.

A major adjustment will take place at one of the outside linebacker spots, where Brooks had spent 14 seasons and made eleven Pro Bowls. Morris and Bates will take strong safety Jermaine Phillips, who has gained a reputation as very big hitter, and put him in Brooks’ place. Phillips is no stranger to stepping into big shoes, as he had previously replaced John Lynch in the Bucs’ secondary.

The special teams units are solid, and Tampa Bay looks like it is augmenting its kicking game with the acquisition of Mike Nugent to handle the longer kicks. The guy who runs them back is Clifton Smith, who as an undrafted rookie out of Fresno State took a punt and a kickoff back for a TD, and made it to the Pro Bowl.

One has to wonder whether Morris is up to the whole challenge. The Bucs have a tough schedule, playing Dallas, Buffalo, the Giants, Philadelphia, New England, Green Bay and Miami, in addition to Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta twice within the division. If this is the year where Freeman gets broken in, things could get out of hand, but I still think the Bucs can get to seven wins, so I’m going OVER the 6.5-win total as it is posted at +120 in the BetOnline NFL football futures betting odds.