NFL – History of Playoff Underdogs

The History of the NFL Playoff Underdog

I’m not going to go digging too deep in to the annals of NFL history, but if recent memory has taught us anything it’s that selling the playoff underdog down the river before the fat lady sings has been a downtrodden decision for the betting community. Of course, all this talk has much to do with the New York Jets upsetting the Bengals and Chargers en route to an AFC Championship berth. They are heavy underdogs against the Colts this weekend, and while nearly everyone is counting them out, the history lessons of the NFL playoffs have to be taken under serious consideration first.

2002 – The Patriots Dynasty Is Born

At the time Tom Brady was a relative unknown. The Patriots were heavy dogs against The Greatest Show On Turf, led by Marshall Faulk and Kurt Warner and in a thrilling upset the Patriots won 20-17 establishing the first championship title in what would become the greatest dynasty of the decade in the NFL.

2003 – Tampa Bay’s Defense Thwarts Oakland’s Offense

Tampa Bay was hardly considered an underdog after earning a first round bye under Jon Gruden. But when they went in to Philly as dogs in the NFC Championship game due to their porous record in cold weather games, the Bucs proved that history doesn’t always dictate fate. They were tight dogs against Oakland on the Super Bowl betting line, but decimated the top-ranked Raiders offense 48-21 on the heels of 5 interceptions by Rich Gannon.

2004 – Wild Card Panthers Lose To Patriots

At 11-5 SU in the regular season, the Panthers earned a playoff spot but had a first round matchup to play. With just the 15 th best scoring offense in the league, and the 10 th best defense, the Panthers erupted on the Cowboys, Rams and Eagles to earn a right to face the Patriots. It was a tight 29-32 loss by the Panthers who were middle-of-the-pack in terms of their Super Bowl odds that year.

2005 – New England Knocks The Wind Out Of Eagles, McNabb

Nobody underestimated the Patriots in the 2004 regular season. It was their epic win in 2002 that stands as their marquee moment. Yet with Terrell Owens coming back from a broken leg, and McNabb enjoying one of his best seasons, this game came down to the two-minute drill…and Donavan failed miserably. He notoriously burned 47-seconds off the clock while recovering from a hit as Owens screamed at him to get his act together and the Eagles failed to get within field goal range to tie the game.

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2006 – Steelers Enter As 6 th Seed, Leave As Champions

The Steelers were led by a “rookie” quarterback (it was actually his second year, but first as a starter) in Ben Roethlisberger and went on the road three times to earn a Super Bowl berth against Seattle. They handed the Bengals a deflating loss the franchise has never recovered from, survived a late fumble by Jerome Bettis against the Colts and then obliterated Denver as underdogs sending Jake Plummer in to retirement. It was the first Super Bowl victory by a sixth seed in history.

2007 – Peyton’s First Super Bowl Victory

The Colts finished the 2006 season with a mighty 12-4 SU record, but that wasn’t enough for them to earn a first round bye, a right that went to the Chargers and Ravens that season. Manning dismantled the Chiefs in a wild card matchup in Indy, then went in to Baltimore and survived the Ravens 15-6. Against New England, their toughest matchup in the playoffs, Manning and the Colts won 38-34 against the rival Patriots before undressing the Bears in the Super Bowl.

It’s impossible to really call any team with Peyton Manning an “underdog” but they certainly had their hands full with the Bears and Patriots in the playoffs. They conquered the mountain and Peyton finally got the monkey off his back.

2008 – Giants Post Biggest Upset In Super Bowl History

The Giants were 14 point dogs when they matched up against the belligerent scoring machine of the New England Patriots. To get that chance, they hit the road in three straight playoff games to beat the favored Bucs, Cowboys and Packers. Nobody had faith in the lesser of the Mannings, until they reached the Super Bowl. The line was too high to begin with, but the Patriots also played like conservative cowards. The Giants would win 17-14 in a game that literally went down to the wire and will forever be remembered for the Helmet Catch. They were the fifth seed in the NFC that year.

2009 – Arizona Cardinals Lose To Pittsburgh Steelers

The miracle of the Arizona Cardinals had more to do with a wild card team peaking at the right moment, and capitalizing on the mistakes of their opponents. After finishing just 9-7 SU in the regular season, Kurt Warner and the red birds put an end to the promising run of rookie Matt Ryan, the career of Jake Delhomme and the hopes of the favored Eagles in the NFC Championship. They pushed the Steelers to the limit in the Super Bowl, losing on a heroic last-minute catch by Santonio Holmes in one of the most thrilling Super Bowls ever.

2010 – Can The Jets Make History?

A rookie head coach in Rex Ryan. A rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez. A rookie running-back in Shonn Greene and a newly formed defense against Peyton Manning in an MVP season in their own house. The Jets are +300 underdogs to win the game (again) and are being given 7.5 points on the AFC Championship betting line. On paper, it’s an open and shut case of the Colts winning in decisive fashion.

Yet if history has proven anything, it’s that underestimating a wild card entry as an underdog can be fatal. This is what makes football great. You can always expect the unexpected, and this weekend when the Jets play the Colts, I have no idea what to expect…but I’ll fill you in tomorrow in my AFC Championship betting preview.

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