NFL Game Line Picks – Steel Curtain Will Ground Atlanta Hawks

With all the rage and excitement boiling over about the Week 1 NFL lines this coming Sunday, it’s sad to think that the tilt between the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers will be overshadowed by a player who won’t even be there. I’m not even going to waste time ranting about Ben Roethlisberger (mostly because I’ve already done so), especially with this serving as a pivotal matchup for the Falcons and Steelers.

It’s no secret that the Pittsburgh Steelers need Big Ben to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. He’s simply wired differently than most quarterbacks, and I think some of the positive intangibles he had as a quarterback may rub off on third-year quarterback Dennis Dixon. The problem with grading Dixon is that we really only have one game by which to measure him.

And that was against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, where he managed to go 12-for-26 with 145 passing yards, 27 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns and a very, very costly interception. Despite the overtime loss against Baltimore, it was a hard fought effort by Dixon who couldn’t have played under more pressure unless the Super Bowl itself was on the game line.

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Dixon has four games to hold the ship together before Ben Roethlisberger returns, and I think he has the swagger to serve up a bit of a stunner. I really liked him at Oregon, and I think he shows some of that athleticism that made him a worthy 5th round draft pick in 2008.

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

Sunday, September 12th — Heinz Field — 1:00pm EST

NFL Game Line: Atlanta -2.5 (38.0)

The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, have their own third-year quarterback to worry about. Matt Ryan’s numbers throughout 2009 took a tumble as he struggled to overcome his turf toe injury. His impressive rookie numbers in 2008 were actually better than what he managed in 2009, as he completed just 58.3 percent of his passes and rallied for 22 touchdowns. It’s too bad he also totaled 19 turnovers (14 picks, 5 fumbles). The saving grace: the Falcons went 11-5 ATS last season.

For all intents and purposes, the Falcons are prepared to take the NFL by storm again. Michael Turner’s ankle is fully healed, the defense improved through the draft and Matt Ryan has taken his learning curve lumps.

However, it can’t be ignored that on the road last year, the Falcons went just 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. There’s a lot to like about the Falcons in this game from a talent standpoint, but I wouldn’t sell the Pittsburgh Steelers down the river just because Roethlisberger’s out.

When an NFL game is on the line, Roethlisberger is the kind of guy you want in the pocket because he can be a difference maker. He has that Elway-esque aura about him, that makes him a feared passer late in the game. But the Steelers have always been built on two things – a stout rushing game and a blistering defense.

While I like the Falcons on paper, I think the Steelers got on the board ahead of the pace with a win. Dixon will surprise some of the NFL game line betting folks out there, and Troy Polamalu will be there to terrorize both Turner and Ryan all day long. Just because Roethlisberger will be out of action in Week 1, it doesn’t mean the Steelers can’t do well on the NFL game line with the rest of their studs in the game.

Furious NFL Game Line Pick – Pittsburgh +2.5 (UNDER)

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