NFL Futures Betting – Evaluating the Points Scored Prop for the AFC

EVALUATING THE POINTS SCORED PROP – AFC TEAMS

We’re going to go team-by-team in the AFC and analyze what we’re looking for from the offenses, using the odds as posted at BetOnline Sportsbook:

Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Points
410 or More +160
380 – 409 +180
379 or Less +160

2008 Total: 347 (21.7)
— I can imagine Pittsburgh’s offense being better, but I wouldn’t necessarily look for a big jump, as long as the Steelers are able to rely on their defense to keep the opposition’s score down. Pittsburgh, which usually plays on a sloppy field, likes to run the ball, and they will try to bump that up to a new level as they expect Rashard Mendenhall to be healthy.

THE PLAY: 379 OR LESS (+160)

Tennessee Titans Regular Season Points
350 or More +160
320 – 349 +180
319 or Less +160

2008 Total: 375 (23.4)
— To me, Tennessee has a better, more efficient offense than a lot of people give them credit for. Kerry Collins is the type who will minimize interceptions (only seven last year) and they have a running back in Chris Johnson who is going to turn small plays into big ones. It might surprise some people to know that the Titans scored touchdowns 65% of the time when they were in the red zone, which was second best in the NFL. With Rob Bironas, they have one of the absolute most reliable kickers in the league, With Albert Haynesworth gone, their defense may not be as good, and they may be involved in more shootouts.

THE PLAY: 350 OR MORE (+160)

Baltimore Ravens Regular Season Points
376 or More +140
346 – 375 +185
345 or Less +175

2008 Total: 385 (24.1)
— I guess the popular opinion is that Joe Flacco, who came into the lineup so cold last season, will be much sharper with more experience this year. I can buy that, and I also think the low turnover total (21 last season) is going to be characteristic of John Harbaugh’s teams. If the Ravens scored this much last year, there is no reason they shouldn’t be in the vicinity, except that they play at New England, at Minnesota, at San Diego, against Indianapolis, and have the Steelers to deal with twice.

THE PLAY: 346 TO 375 (+185)

Cincinnati Bengals Regular Season Points
311 or More +125
281 – 310 +200
280 or Less +185

2008 Total: 204 (12.8)
— The Bengals scored 280 points in 2007, and in that season they had Carson Palmer in the lineup for all 16 games. Yes, they will lose games, but if he’s healthy, they will at least lose in some shootouts.

THE PLAY: 311 OR MORE (+125)

Cleveland Browns Regular Season Points
270 or More +150
240 – 269 +175
239 or Less +175

2008 Total: 232 (14.5)
— I am not so convinced about the Browns’ ability to put a lot of points on board. What I AM convinced about is that they are going to go to great lengths to put Brady Quinn under center, even if they know Derek Anderson is the better guy. This team has simply lost firepower. Braylon Edwards is iffy; Kellen Winslow has been traded, Donte Stallworth is probably going to be unavailable, and they will be relying on some rookie receivers. Last season they were so awful because they were without both their QB’s, and had to go with Ken Dorsey. It’s not fair to make a comparison there. In each of the last six games (and nine games overall), they scored ten points or less. If they could have just scored seven more points in each of those games, they would have exceeded 270.

THE PLAY: 270 OR MORE (+150)

Denver Broncos Regular Season Points
346 or More +160
316 – 345 +180
315 or Less +160

2008 Total: 370 (23.1)
— The Broncos have great receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall; we know that. Knowshown Moreno might wind up being a real breakout rookie, and he’s not all they have in the backfield. But in this kind of offense you really need a triggerman, and neither Chris Simms nor Kyle Orton is the ticket.

THE PLAY: 316 TO 345 (+180)

Houston Texans Regular Season Points
355 or More +150
325 – 354 +170
324 or Less +180

2008 Total: 366 (22.9)
— This team has upside, as you might imagine with weapons like Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and Matt Schaub on board. The question is depth; if any of those guys goes down there’s trouble. In fact, as far as many people are concerned, with Schaub it’s not a matter of if, but when, he will go down for a while with injury. This year I don’t think the Texans are in such great shape with Dan Orlovsky as the backup.

THE PLAY: 325 TO 354 (+170)

Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Points
430 or More +160
400 – 429 +180
399 or Less +160

2008 Total: 377 (23.6)
— Indianapolis was the league’s most efficient team inside the red zone last season, scoring a touchdown on 68% of all possessions. And they did this without a running game to speak of. How much better can they do? I don’t know that we’re going to revisit the days when Peyton Manning was setting the record for TD passes. Marvin Harrison, a home run hitter he had then, is no longer around, and I can sense a return to the running game, with Joseph Addai a good bet to bounce back to some extent and the presence of draftee Donald Brown.

THE PLAY: 399 OR LESS (+160)

Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Points
350 or More +160
320 – 349 +180
319 or Less +160

2008 Total: 302 (18.9)
— Jacksonville is going to get back to being more efficient on offense. They only averaged 5.75 yards per pass last season, and I can see that improving with the offensive line healthier. I don’t want to go overboard, however, because Jack Del Rio’s style is generally conservative, and because there is no more "two-headed" running back situation. This one is pretty firmly in Maurice Jones-Drew’s hands.

THE PLAY: 320 TO 349 (+180)

Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Points
315 or More +160
285 – 314 +180
284 or Less +160

2008 Total: 291 (18.2)
— First of all, you are going to have a quarterback in Matt Cassel who will convert more scoring opportunities than Tyler Thigpen or Brodie Croyle did. Although this team loses Tony Gonzalez, with Todd Haley’s penchant for throwing the football, I think you’ll see a more wide-open team that won’t defend very well, will turn the ball over, but will also make some plays. There will be a lot of things that stop the clock; let’s put it that way.

THE PLAY: 315 OR MORE (+160)

Miami Dolphins Regular Season Points
325 or More +175
295 – 324 +175
294 or Less +150

2008 Total: 345 (21.6)
— The Dolphins were not an offensive juggernaut last year, although they came up with twists like the Wildcat that kept defensive coordinators on their toes. Obviously everybody will have more of a chance to prepare for that this season, but that’s not what we’re primarily looking at. Miami turned the ball over an absurdly low 13 times last year, and any kind of appreciable shift upward is going to cut into this team’s point total. Also, when you’re staring at a schedule that has non-division foes like San Diego, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, you are talking about some rough sledding.

THE PLAY: 294 TO 324 (+175)

New York Jets Regular Season Points
345 or More +160
315 – 344 +180
314 or Less +160

2008 Total: 405 (25.3)
— Let’s see – they’re going to use a rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez) who is not ready for the NFL, and if not him, then a backup (Kellen Clemens) who is still not ready; receivers who are not particularly threatening, and a running back (Thomas Jones) will never approach the same numbers he had last year.

THE PLAY: 314 OR LESS (+160)

Buffalo Bills Regular Season Points
311 or More +160
281 – 310 +180
280 or Less +160

2008 Total: 336 (21.0)
— It would be easy to forecast that the Bills are going to score a lot more points with Terrell Owens in the lineup, but that would be too simple. I think because of Owens’ presence, Lee Evans becomes a better receiver and when he is one-on-one with somebody, it’s over. They’re also going to give Fred Jackson’s multiple talents a lot more exposure. Even with the brief absence of Marshawn Lynch, this offense should work better, and an improved defense should give the Bills better field position.

THE PLAY: 311 OR MORE (+160)

New England Patriots Regular Season Points
460 or More +160
430 – 459 +180
429 or Less +160

2008 Total: 410 (25.6)
— I know people are going nuts speculating on how many points these guys will score now with Tom Brady healthy and in the lineup. I take into account that he will probably get started somewhat slowly, and that Bill Belichick would clearly like to get back to a little more balance in the offense. Remember, this team has won Super Bowls by scoring a lot less.
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THE PLAY: 430 TO 459 (+180)

Oakland Raiders Regular Season Points
286 or More +160
256 – 285 +180
255 or Less +160

2008 Total: 263 (16.4)
— The Raiders have the potential on offense to blow this top figure away. Darren McFadden is a guy who can take it coast-to-coast, and I think he’ll do that a little more. Justin Fargas is certainly productive at that running back position. Rookie wide receiver Darius Hayward-Bey has big speed, and he’ll get a chance to make some plays because the wide receiver position has been a little thin. Also, don’t forget that if JaMarcus Russell can’t move this team, they now have a viable option to go to in Jeff Garcia. He’ll engineer some points.

THE PLAY: 286 OR MORE (+160)

San Diego Chargers Regular Season Points
455 or More +160
425 – 454 +180
424 or Less +160

2008 Total: 439 (27.4)
— Well, Philip Rivers certainly had a season that will be hard to duplicate. Or will it? I’m not certain LaDanian Tomlinson is going to stage a big comeback, but I doubt he’ll drop through the floor either. The receiving duo of Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers is going to be better this year, and Antonio Gates is such a coverage problem from his tight end position. This team can hold steady on offense.

THE PLAY: 425 TO 454 (+180)