NFL Futures Betting – Why The Patriots Are A Stay Away Bet In 2010

If you’re like me, you have already set every possible calendar, email, internet, stopwatch and smoke screen alert you possibly can to signal the coming of the 2010 NFL betting season. One of the favorites that stands out early this summer is the New England Patriots and, unlike years past, it’s not for good reasons. There are way too many questions surrounding the Patriots to warrant a bet unless they’re simply your favorite team.

I’m not saying that they’re going to be a bad bet in the regular season, but if last year’s numbers are any indication, they’re not going to be a great one either. They finished the season 8-7-1 ATS with a 3-4-1 ATS record away from Gillette Stadium. Though undefeated at home, they also went 5-3 ATS in their own house.

They may have won the AFC East last season with a 10-6 SU record, but the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will be breathing right down their throats.

We have a ton of questions about an aging defense that looks slow, cluttered and out of sorts. Still, there are far too many questions about the offense to garner an NFL futures bet, especially given some dicey odds.

AFC Championship Odds – New England Patriots +550

In the AFC alone, the Patriots are the second favorite behind the San Diego Chargers at +500 (or 5-to-1). In all honesty, those are ridiculous odds. It’s more of a sign that the oddsmakers are scared of getting burned by a team that consistently shows a knack for beating the NFL odds against them than anything else.

The battle for the AFC Championship will be a grind as it stands, but the battle in the AFC East alone will be enough to weather any team. The Jets (+700) are loading up on both sides of the ball and the Miami Dolphins have plenty to be excited about at despite their +2000 odds. With Brandon Marshall and Chad Henne forming a dangerous one-two through the air, and Ricky Williams showing flashes of Pro Bowl worth, I wouldn’t sleep on Miami.

Odds To Win Super Bowl XLV – New England Patriots +1000

If the Patriots were to win the AFC somehow, someway, then their Super Bowl odds are actually pretty good. That is, if it weren’t such an unrealistic bet. My concerns aren’t founded in their offensive personnel, it’s the chemistry of the team that worries me most.

Tom Brady has put his terrifying ACL injury behind him, but now his favorite target, Wes Welker, is just starting to deal with his. Welker likely won’t be ready to be the 123-catch, 1,220 yard beast he was last year until mid-season.

Welker, meanwhile isn’t the biggest problem. Randy Moss wants a contract extension, and if there’s a superstar out there prone to be sour over not getting guaranteed money to secure his financial future, it’s Moss.

The Patriots have never been free spending lunatics in the mold of Washington, and that may kill some team chemistry as Moss continues to whine about the lack of an extension being presented. If that kind of issue even surfaces and effects his production on the field, the blue-collar fans in New England would roast him right out of town. It’s not like they’ve won a Super Bowl with him in the fold.

NFL Futures Week 1 Lines – Bengals vs. Patriots (-6) — Sept. 9th

Listen, as much as Welker is hurt and Moss is complaining, you can’t doubt the ability of Tom Brady all that much. You can very much harp on the capability of the ground game to compliment Brady’s production through the air.

The Patriots desperately needed to shore up the ranks at tailback, and refused to do so through the draft (which isn’t their fault – this wasn’t a deep running-back draft). Laurence Maroney is still listed as their top running back, and ranking 27th in the league with only 757 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns isn’t exactly the eye-popping numbers you’d want.

To put this in perspective, Maroney is sandwiched by Ahmad Bradshaw (a third down man for the Giants) and Kevin Smith (who only played in 13 games for Detroit) in the rushing stat rankings.

Furious NFL Predictions – New England Patriots – 2nd in AFC East

The worries about the defense and offense alone aren’t the only thing killing the Patriots. All great coaches eventually sink in to a “I’m tooting my own horn way too loud to hear my common sense” level of craziness. We all saw that happen when Bill Belichik earned Dumbest Call Of The Year with a 4th and 2 call against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10.

If Belichik dives deeper in to his own regression, the Patriots’ betting fans will be going absolutely insane as the Pats give up close games. A Week 1 matchup against a potent Bengals team will be very telling of how the Patriots play out the season. A Week 7 game against the Chargers, and the highly touted Week 11 game against the Colts, will be even more revealing.

For now, the Patriots are the biggest stay away team on the NFL Futures board considering the questions surrounding them, and the poor value on the risk-return ratio. That could very well change down the road, but until the regular NFL betting season kicks off on Thursday, June 9th we won’t know for sure.