NFL Futures – Season Sack Leader

It’s been more than two decades since anyone led the NFL in sacks in back-to-back seasons. Can DeMarcus Ware end the drought this season, or should the NFL betting community look elsewhere when placing their futures wagers?

In 2008 Ware easily led the league with 20 sacks. That was also a career high for the Cowboys linebacker, who had 14 sacks a year earlier. Ware’s sack total has progressively increased throughout his career, from eight in his rookie campaign, to 11.5 in 2006, to 14 in 2007, to 20 last year. It’s unlikely Ware could get much higher than 20 this season, especially when you consider the single-season record is 22.5 by Michael Strahan. However, If Ware could match 20 or even hit 19 there’s a good chance it would be enough to keep him on top. Since Strahan set the record in 2001 no one had reached 19 sacks until Ware racked up 20 last year. Ware is currently listed as the favorite on the NFL betting lines at +500 to lead in sacks, and barring injury he has a good chance of being the sack king again in 2009.

Don’t go handing Ware the title right away, though. Repeating as sack leader isn’t an easy task, which is why it’s only been done twice. The last player to do it was Reggie White in 1987-88, and before him the only other player to do it was Mark Gastineau in 1983-84. The rest of the Top 5 from last season, who likely have the best chance of unseating Ware in ’09: Joey Porter (17.5), John Abraham (16.5), James Harrison (16), Jared Allen (14.5), and Julius Peppers (14.5). From that group only Allen has led the league in sacks before; Allen led in 2007 when he had 15.5 with the Chiefs. He’ll likely need to hit the 18-19 mark to get back on top, which is why he’s a +900 underdog on the NFL sports gambling odds.

There are at least three sack masters that were slowed by injury last season that bettors may want to keep an eye on this year. First is Shawn Merriman. Since leading the league with 17 sacks in only 12 games in 2006 Merriman’s production has dropped due to injury. Merriman only played in one game last year due to a major knee injury. It may be difficult for him to put up his usual stats after knee surgery, so Merriman is likely a gamble even at +1200.

Two other players returning from injury include the Giants’ Osi Umenyiora and Seattle’s Patrick Kerney. Umenyiora’s career high in sacks was 14.5 in 2005, but he could be in for a big season lining up with Justin Tuck if he’s healthy. Kerney is also a regular among the sack leaders, but injuries limited him to seven games and five sacks last year. He should return to double digits, and he definitely has an outside shot at the league lead.