NFL Futures – Saint Still Reign Supreme In NFC South

After winning Super Bowl XLIV, the New Orleans Saints are preparing to do battle again in the NFC South where they won the division last year.

As anyone who loves to bet on NFL Futures will know, no team has won this division in back-to-back years since it was created in 2002.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons, that’s perhaps the only reason to bet against New Orleans.

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New Orleans Saints (-150 to win NFC South)

The Saints were the toughest bet to gauge in the regular season because of their impossible football betting lines.

Though they finished 13-3 SU, they went just 8-8 ATS even as oddsmakers listed them as double-digit favorites in many games.

Yet with Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and a slew of offensive weapons returning, it’s impossible to think that New Orleans can’t repeat as division champions.

This team is going to miss having Mike Bell at running-back, but Pierre Thomas can assume goal line duties in his place.

If the biggest concern they have is the bad karma of Reggie Bush hanging over New Orleans like a dark cloud, then this team is in fine shape.

Atlanta Falcons (+200 to win NFC South)

The Falcons were the best bet in the division during the regular season, and barely missed the playoffs with a 9-7 SU record that saw them go 11-5 ATS.

While all the talk in the Dirty Dirty surrounds the third year of Matt Ryan, the real point of focus should be Michael Turner.

And that’s exactly why I can’t encourage a bet on the Falcons. The Curse of 370 has been a hex on running backs like Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Eddie George and countless others in the history of the NFL.

Like it or not, there are tons of metrics stating that guys never recover from a season where they crest the 370 carries mark, and Turner has this year to prove he can overcome the Curse of 370.

And while the Falcons have plenty of reason to be hopeful on offense in spite of Turner, their defense has plenty to make up for.

They ranked 21st in total yards allowed (348.9 per game) and 14th with 20.3 points against per game. Considering a reasonably tough schedule, the outlook for the 2010 Atlanta Hawks is another 9-7 SU season at best.

Carolina Panthers (+600 to win NFC South)

The Panthers have to figure out who the starting quarterback is before I can lobby for any NFL Division Futures bets on their behalf.

Matt Moore, who was 5-0 ATS in the final five games for the Panthers in 2009, will have to hold off the NFL-ready Jimmy Clausen.

The Panthers, 8-8 SU last year and 9-7 ATS, also lost Julius Peppers on the defensive side.

The schedule is also mildly difficult for either Moore or Clausen, and a matchup against Peppers and the Bears in Week 5 will serve as a litmus test for the resolve of this team.

Until then, I can’t knowingly encourage any type of long-term investment on this team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2000 to win NFC South)

If there were 2012 NFL Future bets available, the Bucs would be in, but for now I expect nothing but more growing pains.

Donald Penn is undoubtedly one of the best, young, left tackles in the league, and he now has a long-term contract that will keep him covering the flank of second-year quarterback Joshua Freeman while he develops.

With the Bucs grabbing Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams in the 2010 NFL Draft, they finally have a reliable set of receivers.

But we all know how long it takes wide-outs to learn how to perform admirably at the NFL level.

Until we see some solid metrics out of the young Bucs, they’re a strict no-go in the NFL Futures.