NFL Futures – Rushing Yards Leader

The focus on NFL futures continues this week with the spotlight shining on the 2009 rushing leader. The NFL betting public appears to have only two options according to last year’s stats, but a closer look reveals that may not exactly be the case.

Last season Adrian Peterson ran away with the rushing crown for the first time in his career. That snapped LaDainian Tomlinson’s two-year grip on the rushing title. With 1,760 yards Peterson topped Michael Turner by 61 yards. Peterson is heavily favored to lead the league again at +225 on the NFL odds, but there are at least two things that could stand in his way. The obvious one is, of course, injury. Peterson was bitten by the injury bug a number of times in college and it also limited him to 14 games in his rookie season. Due to his hard-edged running style, injury will always be a major concern for Peterson, which could easily keep him from recapturing the rushing crown. The other reason Peterson might not rack up as many rushing yards is more passing in Minnesota if Brett Favre ever becomes a Viking. If Favre does finally sign with Minnesota do you think he’s going to be happy constantly handing off to AP over and over again?

If something does slip up Peterson this season the favorite to unseat him and take the rushing title is Turner at +450. In only his first season as a starting back Turner rumbled for 1,699 yards. Following Turner on the NFL odds are DeAngelo Williams at +800, Clinton Portis at +1000, and Steve Slaton at +1400. Williams could be one to watch this year, as his breakout campaign last year could lead to more carries and more yards. Despite the fact Porter finished fourth in rushing yards last season, even repeating those numbers seems unlikely considering his injury history and his age (28), which is actually getting up there for a running back. Slaton is definitely a worthy pick if he can work on his stamina. Slaton had a solid rookie season with 1,282 yards, but seemed to tire later in the campaign.

The player many bettors may be wondering about is Tomlinson. Injuries dramatically cut into LT’s numbers last season and he only put up 1,110 yards – still over 1,000, but down a lot compared to the 1,474 yards he had in 2007 and the 1,815 yards he had in 2006. LT is a big underdog at +1400 to reclaim the rushing title. With Darren Sproles stealing carries from him in San Diego it’s doubtful Tomlinson will get back on top even if he finds his old moves again.