NFL Free Picks – Minnesota Playing for Playoffs, Giants Playing for Respect

The Giants are playing for respect while Minnesota will be playing for the 2nd seed in the playoffs.

You wouldn’t have known that last week as the Giants were atrocious this past Sunday, losing 41 to 9 to the Carolina Panthers in their last game at Giants Stadium. Atrocious might not be a strong enough word. It was so awful that FOX switched the game to the Saints vs. Buccaneers contest.

The G-Men will be looking to bounce back in Week 17 in the playoffs even though they are literally playing for nothing. What looked like a meaningful Week 17 game when the season started, has turned into a laughable work of dung art, if you’re strictly a Giants’ fan and not an NFL betting fan, because of the Giants’ huge egg that dropped out of their butts last Sunday.

The Vikings, well, are playing for something. So, I will leave the metaphors aside when discussing this game from their point-of-view. To Minnesota, a victory would secure the second seed in the NFC Playoffs which comes with a 1st round bye and a home game in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Minnesota -9 vs New York >> Join to Bet Now

That’s important for Minnesota since they have been terrible on the road lately.

First, here are the NFL wagering lines for this game.

New York Giants +9 -110 O 48 -110
Minnesota Vikings -9 -110 U 48 -110

Below are a few online betting trends for this game.

• The New York Giants are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• The Minnesota Vikings are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• The Over is 4 and 0 in the New York Giants last 4 games.
• The Under is 4 and 0 in the Minnesota Vikings last 4 games at home.

Before picking the best wager in this game, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.

Giants’ Offense vs. Vikings’ Defense

Even though the Giants’ offense was horrid last week against Carolina, it’s been good for most of 2009. The G-Men have the 6th ranked offense in the NFL and average over 25 points per game.

It’s a very balanced offense with 120 yards per game coming on the ground and 258 yards per game coming through the air. Eli Manning, of course, is the linchpin of the Giants. If he struggles, then New York struggles. If Eli is on, then there are a number of targets that could have big games for the G-Men on any given Sunday. Wide receiver Steve Smith has been somewhat of a revelation this season. He’s caught 97 balls for over 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns.

The Vikings’ defense is terrific against the run, but sometimes horrible against the pass. I say sometimes because even though the Vikings can make Jay Cutler look like the greatest Chicago QB since Sid Luckman, they can also make Carson Palmer look like David Klingler.

It all depends on the pass rush. If the Vikings’ front seven can get to Eli, then there is no way that Manning will be able to toss the ball to Smith and his other wide receivers. If they don’t, then Eli can have a big game because the Vikings’ secondary isn’t anything to write home about.

Giants’ Defense vs. Vikings’ Offense

New York’s defense was ranked 1st in the NFL until the G-Men descended upon New Orleans. Actually, the G-Men didn’t even land getting thumped by the Saints 48 to 27.

A lot of football fans believe that the loss to the Saints was the turning point in the Giants’ season. That’s hard to argue, but what isn’t is the fact that New York, who had allowed only one other team to score more than 30 points in the previous five weeks and that team was Dallas at home, imploded defensively after New Orleans. Teams ran, passed, and scored pretty much at will against the G-Men who gave up 40 or more points 3 more times in the next 9 weeks after the Saints loss.

The Giants’ defense is ranked 9th overall but 28th in scoring allowed. Teams average over 25 points per game against the Giants’ porous defense. Last Sunday, Matt Moore and the Carolina Panthers racked up 41 points and over 400 yards of offense.

Minnesota has had issues getting the ball into the end zone lately but looked good in more than a few drives against Chicago’s defense this past Monday. The Vikings’ have the 8th ranked offense in the NFL and average over 28 points per game.

They can also run it at you with Adrian Peterson or kill you through the air with Brett Favre. Favre hasn’t been as good the second half of this season as he was in the first, but he has still managed to maintain a 104 QB rating and passed for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns without a pick on Monday night against Chicago.

The Best NFL Bet Is…

On the Minnesota Vikings to cover the 9 points in the sportsbook.

Minnesota let one get away from them this past Monday night against Chicago and Eli and the Giants’ offense could exploit the Vikings, but Minnesota is at home for this game. The Vikings are a different team at home.

Only one team has scored 30 points or more on them in the dome in 2009. The Giants, coming off of a terrible loss, don’t figure to be the second. In Minnesota’s last four games, they’ve allowed no more than 10 points to be scored against them.

Favre and Peterson also figure to really exploit that Giants’ defense. Any way you look at it, the Giants have to be disappointed with 2009 and will be trying to run and hide from the Vikings and this season.

That means that Minnesota should win by at least 2 touchdowns in this game.