NFL Free Picks – Dolphins Bring in Help for Henne

Folks who are particularly interested in my NFL free picks might be paying special attention when those picks involve the Miami Dolphins, who have brought aboard some help for young QB Chad Henne this season. In the season opener, the opposition is the Buffalo Bills, who have made a coaching change that they hope will add some zest to the offense, not to mention a rookie runner who can take it coast-to-coast.

These teams meet at 1 PM ET on Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium (artificial turf) in Orchard Park, NY. In the NFL Football betting odds, the Dolphins are a three-point favorite on the road, with a total of 38.5 points, and those are the numbers upon which we will base our NFL free pick.

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Live at Ralph Wilson Stadium

Orchard Park, NY

Sunday, September 12 — 1 PM ET

TV: CBS

NFL Betting Line:

Miami -3

Buffalo +3

Total: 38.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL free picks on this game:

• Miami has lost four of its last six games SU
• Miami has played nine of its last 13 road games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has lost 17 of its last 25 games SU
• Buffalo is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 home games
• Buffalo has lost ten of its last 13 home games SU

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Those looking to cash in on the NFL free picks for Sunday realize that the Bills made what was perhaps a curious choice to some when it came to a new head coach, and selected Chan Gailey, who was not only fired out of the NFL last season, he was fired in the pre-season, by the Chiefs, where he was offensive coordinator.

Hooking up with Buffalo, he may be a mediocre hire from an overall standpoint, but for now he may perk up this offense a little, inasmuch is it was rather moribund last year.

Trent Edwards had six touchdown passes and seven interceptions last year, and hasn’t made progress, it seems, even though it appears that he was given better personnel.

Gailey is said to be pretty good with quarterbacks. The Bills, with everybody healthy, is going to have a pretty good running game, because it is three-deep, and CJ Spiller, who has spectacular talent, will get the start here. He could make a smashing debut, and the prospect of that definitely sways us in this free NFL pick.

Here are some of the head-to-head Football betting trends with regard to our NFL free pick:

• Buffalo has won eight of the last 12 meetings SU
• Buffalo has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Buffalo has won and covered five of the last six meetings as the home team

The Miami franchise is dealing with the recent move by Bill Parcells to step back from his position of vice-president of football, as he turns the day-to-day operation completely over to GM Jeff Ireland. That caught some people by surprise, though maybe it shouldn’t have.

Chad Henne starts the season as the starting quarterback, and clearly the Dolphins had placed their future in his hands. The backfield is healthy again, and Ronnie Brown can be expected to run the Wildcat formation with the same degree of precision.

Brandon Marshall, who caught 101 passes for the Broncos last season, gives Miami the downfield threat it lacked last year, but the guy in the slot, Greg Camarillo, is going to be missed, and I’m not sure a guy like Brian Hartline is going to be the answer running routes underneath zones.

Regarding our NFL free picks, I feel a little uneasy about Henne at quarterback, and it’s going to take a while to get to a level of comfort with him. Keep in mind that the Bills were somewhat opportunistic last year, picking off 28 passes, and Henne (14 INT’s) isn’t quite the guardian of the ball that Chad Pennington was.

You can’t be crazy about the way the Dolphins have traveled to Buffalo in recent years, losing five of the last six, and dropping three of the last four by double digits. We’ve got to be taking here, and it makes sense to be on Buffalo plus the points in our NFL free picks.

JAY’S PLAY: BUFFALO +3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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