NFL Free Picks – Carroll Gets Points at Home in Seahawks Debut

People like me who are making NFL free picks have to sometimes take a long hard look at what a guy like Pete Carroll, who has so much success at USC, can do at the NFL level, as he is getting points in his debut against San Francisco. It’s not that he hasn’t had any experience there; after all, he spent time as the coach of the New England Patriots. But will his rah-rah ways play well in the situation the Seattle Seahawks find themselves in?  The Forty-Niners are favored by three points in the NFL betting odds, with a total of 37 points listed, and we will base our NFL free pick on that.

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Live at Qwest Field
Sunday, September 12 — 4:15 PM ET
TV:  Fox

NFL Betting Odds:
San Francisco -3
Seattle +3
Total: 37

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL free picks on this game:

• San Francisco has played its last six games UNDER the total
• San Francisco has won four of its last six games SU
• San Francisco has lost six of its last seven road games SU
• San Francisco has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
• Seattle has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• Seattle has lost four of its last five games SU
• Seattle has covered five of its last 15 games
• Seattle has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total

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As we go through the process (for lack of a better word) of analyzing our NFL free picks, I’m not sure yet what to make of Pete Carroll and his re-entry into the NFL with the Seahawks. This is a team that not only wasn’t successful last season, winning five of 16 games and covering just six against the NFL odds, but also looks like a club that is in transition. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t going to be the starting quarterback for very long; that’s why Carroll went out and got Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego. Left tackle Walter Jones has retired, which puts his responsibilities in the hands of rookie Russell Okung. The defense said goodbye to Pro Bowler Patrick Kerney. T.J, Houshmandzadeh was let go, despite the fact that Seattle doesn’t look like it is loaded with receivers (although we have faith in Golden Tate).

Here are some of the head-to-head betting trends with regard to the NFL odds:

• Seattle has won ten of the last 14 meetings SU
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Seattle has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the home team

San Francisco was listed as the favorite to win the NFC West, as oddsmakers anticipate that Arizona, which has won the division the last two years, will go forward without Kurt Warner, and for that matter, without Matt Leinart. The Niners do appear to be the most solid team in the division, and certainly Mike Singletary and his staff have a stop unit that is in the league’s upper crust. They also appear to be ready to go back to the ground-and-pound on offense; Glen Coffee unexpectedly "retired" during training camp, but Frank Gore is effective, and can be even more so with Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon backing him up. Dixon led all NFL rushers during the pre-season.

Seattle plays in a venue where the crowd noise is bothersome; everybody knows that. In fact, opponents have been particularly prone to false starts. However, that has not necessarily made the ‘Hawks much of a bet when getting points at home. In fact, they have gone just 4-3-1 ATS over the last couple of years. We obviously can’t base our NFL free pick on that. Rather, we’d refer to the fundamental edges the Niners have, and their ability to penetrate a Seattle offensive line that is still a work in progress (truth be told). You’ve got to look upon Carroll’s arrival in the Pacific Northwest with some skepticism; was he simply getting out from under the coming storm at USC, where the Trojans are now on probation? We’re going to show some faith in the 49ers here, albeit in a rather small recommendation, and lay a field goal in our NFL free picks for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN FRANCISCO -3 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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