NFL Free Picks – Bradford Gets Baptism Under Fire

The NFL free picks for Sunday have a certain twist to them, as Sam Bradford, the #1 choice in this year’s NFL draft, will get his baptism under fire for the St. Louis Rams. In his NFL debut, Bradford, who looked good in the pre-season, will get to fling the ball against the defending NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals. In the NFL betting odds for this game, the Cards are listed as a four-point favorite, with the total posted at 39 points. We will base our NFL free picks on that for Sunday’s game.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Live at the Edward Jones Dome
Sunday, September 12 — 4:15 PM ET
TV:  Fox

NFL Betting Odds:
Arizona -4
St. Louis +4
Total: 39 

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL betting odds on this game:

• Arizona has covered two of its last four games
• Arizona has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
• Arizona has won ten of its last 15 games SU
• Arizona has covered one of its last five road games
• Arizona has won seven of its last ten road games SU
• St Louis has covered two of its last six games
• St Louis has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• St Louis has lost its last eight games SU
• St Louis has covered six of its last 18 home games

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Certainly the talk all around St. Louis this week, and a big part of our consideration in this NFL free pick, is about the NFL debut of Sam Bradford, who was supposed to be the guy who took a half-season or so to learn the ropes and step in gradually. Instead, AJ Feeley, who was slated to be the veteran seat-warmer, got hurt in the pre-season, which allowed Bradford more snaps, which he certainly took full advantage of. Bradford now gets to assume the controls under actual NFL game conditions. What he’ll find is that the Rams’ offensive line is a lot less effective, comparatively speaking, after the bell rings. He is also limited in terms of his receiving options, with Donnie Avery, a second-round draft pick from two years ago, out for the year. Can Bradford, who threw mostly short passes at Oklahoma, stretch NFL defenses? Probably not coming right out of the chute.

Here are some of the nfl betting trends with regard to the NFL odds:

• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Arizona has covered four of the last five meetings
• Arizona has won the last seven meetings SU
• Arizona has won the last five meetings SU as the road team

In making up this NFL free pick, I am not foolish enough to think that the Cardinals, who went to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, will be working with the same level of efficiency on offense as they did when Kurt Warner was throwing passes for them. At the same time, I don’t think this is a team that is completely disabled either. This is a two-time defending division champion, so there are some fundamentals they can use to their advantage. Now that Warner is gone, not to mention Anquan Boldin, who was a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald, coach Ken Whisenhunt might be able to do more of what he originally intended to do when he got to Phoenix, which is to run the ball more.

Beanie Wells is perfectly capable of it, if they give him a chance. Isn’t he? Besides, Derek Anderson is someone who can stretch out defenses a little. He’s just got to cut down on his interceptions (once every 18 throws last year). There’s an addition by subtraction here too; the Cards’ players had no confidence in since-released Matt Leinart, so the spirit is a little better now than it would have been if the Heisman winner was shoved down their throats. That having been said, there are lots of edges for Arizona here, and we will lay the points with them in this NFL free pick.

JAY’S PLAY:  ARIZONA -4.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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