NFL Football Odds Peg the New Orleans Saints as Clear Favorites Versus Minnesota

The NFL football odds in the sportsbook are currently at New Orleans -5 versus the Minnesota Vikings in the 2010-2011 NFL Kick-Off Game.

The Saints have had a relatively quiet off-season, not counting the prescription medication scandal (remember that?), for a defending Super Bowl champ.  Their opponents, those whacky Minnesota Vikings, have not.

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Favre is back, yah?  Yah, as Marge Gunderson from Fargo would say, definitely yah.

Unfortunately for the Twin Cities, Brett isn’t back healthy.  Heck, he isn’t even back feeling well and what’s worse for the Vikings is the fact that his #1 target from a year ago, Sidney Rice, is out until at least Week 7 with an injury.  But the Vikings still have one of the best, if not the best, defensive lines in all of football, the terrific Adrian Peterson, and, when he’s not suffering from a migraine, flashy WR Percy Harvin.

“Yah”, Marge says, “but the Saints got Drew Brees.”

Yes, Marge, they do indeed.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Where:  Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
When:  Sept. 9th, 2010 at 8:30 pm EST
TV:  NBC
Radio:  125 (MIN) 126 (NO) 

NFL Betting Lines

Minnesota Vikings                  +5 -110            +200    O 48 -110

New Orleans Saints                -5 -110             -240     U 48 -110

Based on the trends, a correction may be required regarding the NFL football expert odds.

• The New Orleans Saints are 5 and 0 in their last 5 games in September.
• The New Orleans Saints are 2 and 6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Minnesota Vikings are 5 and 0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
• The Minnesota Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Sure, the NFL football odds online assume that the Saints should beat the Vikings by at least 5 points, but the trends don’t support the odds.  In order to really gauge whether or not the Vikings or Saints will cover in this game, one needs to consider some factors.

The first is an obvious one.  If the Saints can pressure Brett Favre the way that they did in last year’s NFC Championship game, that is putting Brett on his back and roughing him up, then Favre and the Vikings are probably going to lose.

The consideration regarding this factor is that the Saints may be without a 100% Jonathan Vilma and they definitely won’t be able to use FS Darren Sharper.  Sharper is out for at least 6 weeks.  But the Saints pass rush might actually be better this year than it was last year.  Former Bear DE Alex Brown is a big step up from the often times hurt Charles Grant, Will Smith is a stud on the other side of the defensive line and Sedrick Ellis should be better this year than he was last year.  Also supporting the pass rush is the fact that the Saints might have the best CB combo in the league with Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter.  It appears that the Saints will get to Favre in this game.

Now, there is something else to consider and that’s whether or not the Vikings can get to Drew Brees before he can burn them.  The Vikings pass rush is excellent.  There’s no doubt that they’re going to pressure Brees.  The big question is whether or not Brees can be effective against the Vikings with pressure coming at him.

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Brees shouldn’t have an issue.  Although the Vikings pass rush is the best in the league (in my opinion!), their defensive backfield is suspect.  The suspect defensive backfield will force the Vikings to put pressure on Brees with only four players.  If they have to blitz Drew, if they can’t pressure Brees with four, then he’s going to carve them up like he does the family turkey at Thanksgiving.

Oh, yes, Saints WR Marques Colston is questionable for this game and Reggie Bush missed practice on Wednesday, but unlike the Vikings who have to rely on Percy Harvin because WR Bernard Berrian on the other side isn’t going to help them, the Saints are loaded with weapons.  Brees is going to have a good game.  That’s for sure.

So, what’s going on here?  It’s obvious to me that the Saints are going to be very difficult for the Vikings to beat on Thursday night, but there is one more factor to consider when it comes to NFL football odds handicapping.  That factor is Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson.  If Peterson can get going, and the Saints concentrate too much on rushing Brett, then the Vikings could not just cover the spread but win this game outright.

I have to believe that Saints D-coordinator Gregg Williams knows exactly what the Vikings are going to want to do with Peterson.  He should have something in store for the running game.

My NFL football odds prediction on this game is that the Saints will cover the 5-point spread.  I’m not at all happy with it and I do believe that the Vikings have a huge shot to make me wrong, but I keep thinking about the lack of weapons that Brett has in the WR position and the fact that the Saints’ D might actually be better this year than it was last year.

I’m going with New Orleans to cover on Thursday night, but if I were playing one of those new 9 ½ point teaser bets, I’d probably go with the Vikings.

NFL Betting Pick:  New Orleans Saints -5 -110

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Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, tsn.com, nfl.com