NFL Football Betting Handicappers Should be Smart and Back Fins vs. Pats

Pro football betting handicappers should be smart this Sunday, January 2nd, and back the Miami Dolphins to cover the spread versus the New England Patriots.

There is absolutely no reason for the Patriots to keep their starters on either offense or defense in this game after the first half.  In fact, I’d be very surprised to see Pats’ QB Tom Brady under center after the first quarter.

Why?  Because New England has secured the #1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the  AFC Playoffs.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? Find out more exciting details HERE.]

Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (13-2)

Where:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

When:  Jan. 2nd, 2011 at 1:00 pm EST

TV:  CBS

Radio:  Sirius-XM 157 (MIA) 123 (NE) 

NFL Betting Line

Miami Dolphins                        +3 ½ -110       O 43 ½ -110

New England Patriots               -3 ½ -110        U 43 -110

Check out some trends in this game.

• The Miami Dolphins are 11 and 2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
• The Miami Dolphins are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
• The New England Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 18.
• The Miami Dolphins are 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New England.

Sure, Miami isn’t a very good team, but when it comes to the football betting spread in this game, it just doesn’t make any sense to back New England knowing that coach Bill Belichick isn’t going to get his superstar QB, the “Fabio” of the NFL, Mr. Tom Brady-Bundchen, hurt in this contest.

That’s just not going to happen.  Mr. Brady has been awesome this season and deserves the MVP trophy for sure, but his stats are meaningless to look at given the fact that he won’t be in this game for very long.  Brady’s backup, Brian Hoyer, had an 82.6 QB rating in the 2009-2010 NFL Season.  He’s probably going to get something close to that this Sunday, because Miami’s D isn’t bad.

The Fins’ defense is one of the reasons that I’m confident about their football betting chances in this game.  Miami allows 296.5 yards per game on average. That ranks them 3rd in total yards allowed in the NFL.  The Fins give up only 201.8 passing yards and 94.7 rushing yards per game.  That gives me confidence that Miami can shut down a Patriots’ offense lacking their cat-walking general.

On offense, Miami should be able to move the ball against New England.  The Fins do average 328 yards per game and QB Chad Henne shouldn’t throw 3 picks in the game on Sunday the way he did the first time the 2 teams met.  Although the score in that game ended up Patriots 41 to 14, the Patriots didn’t blow out Miami the traditional way.  The Fins scored a touchdown on a kick-off return, a 35-yard blocked field goal return, and on a 51-yard interception return.  That more than anything led to the easy cover versus the spread in the football betting sportsbook.

If the Miami offense and special teams plays better this Sunday, the game should be much closer.  A closer game favors the Fins who won’t have to deal with Brady and that awesome Patriots passing game.  If, for some reason, Brady does play the entire game, then Belichick will no doubt piss off the football gods.  If Belichick does that, then the Patriots automatically become a play against to win the Super Bowl.

I’m backing the Miami Dolphins against the spread in their game versus the New England Patriots on Sunday, January 2nd. 

NFL Betting Pick:  Miami Dolphins +3 ½ -110

Check out football betting odds for Week 17 NFL games, click here!