NFL Draft Day – Is Stafford the Right Choice for Detroit?

WILL IT BE THE "WELCOME MATT" IN THE MOTOR CITY?

I just came from Detroit, where most of the fans I’ve talked to who are still interested in Lions football are somewhat less than excited about what they hear is likely to happen in the NFL Draft this Saturday. All the buzz is that Matthew Stafford, the junior quarterback at Georgia, is going to be their pick (certainly he is the BetOnline favorite, at -800), and there are people who are wondering whether what they have already isn’t good enough for the time being (more on that in a minute).

Understanding that a lot of teams out-think themselves around draft time, I would hope for the Lions’ sake (and for the sake of Detroit fans, because an 0-16 season and a bankruptcy at GM are a lot to take in one year’s time), that the team’s management does some serious second-guessing about this, because it may do them some good.

I watched Stafford play a number of times, and I do not remember ever really thinking about him as a potential #1 draft choice. Look – I understand that NFL teams draft on potential much of the time, and that while I consider myself a strong handicapper, I am not a professional evaluator of college talent coming into the NFL. I also understand that Stafford broke three dishes with his pinpoint passing from a few yards away on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon. I’m just wondering whether this is the right guy for the Lions at this time. Any team that has gone 0-16 the year before is not a player away, even if that player is a quarterback. In fact, if that particular quarterback is not someone who is going to come right in and contribute, his selection has very little impact on whether that team is going to win any more games than the year before. Any team which hasn’t won the year before (and gee, I’m just guessing, since this has happened only once before in modern NFL history) is going to need a LOT of personnel.

I appreciate the symbolism of going after a "foundation" with the top overall selection, but there are foundations to be had elsewhere. You need to build infrastructure. The Lions have Jeff Backus at left tackle, who is relatively capable but not Pro Bowl material. He may become a lot stronger if they can shift him inside to guard. Remember that Detroit drafted Gosder Cherilus last year out of Boston College and he will man the right tackle position. If they have the opportunity to draft a Jason Smith (2/1 to be the top pick at BetOnline) or a Eugene Monroe with that top selection, all of sudden this team has the makings of an outstanding offensive line, which makes running backs better, and makes quarterbacks better.

Detroit also took Kevin Smith of Central Florida in last year’s draft, and he is an industrious back who could easily top 1200 yards for them, with a better offensive line. Calvin Johnson, one of the best wide receivers in football, is joined by Bryant Johnson, and with five of the first 82 picks in the first 82 picks in the draft (and more, if they make a trade), it won’t be that hard to add someone to that mix who can chip in.

Then there’s that veteran some seem to have forgotten. Daunte Culpepper came into a mini-camp at 260 pounds, which is less than his playing weight in 2000. He is reunited with his former offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, for whom he threw for 4717 yards last time they were together (in Minnesota). He says he’s in his best shape in five years, and that he feels the spring of a rookie in his step: "I feel like I’m coming out of the draft again, believe it or not." He feels the push. He could be perfectly fine in the saddle until the Lions find themselves another veteran, if need be. He would be better with a better offensive line in front of him.

A trade for multiple draft choices would be an interesting thing to explore, and of course I know that a lot of NFL teams are reticent to get involved with the #1 pick because of the big money commitment that’s involved. However, I’d like you to ask yourself whether any of the other NFL teams would actually make a trade to the #1 spot specifically to get Stafford. I’m not sure many would.

There is a possible twist to all this. The Lions have already mentioned that they would like to have a deal in place with a potential top draft pick BEFORE the draft gets underway, which they have the latitude to do under NFL rules. That could ultimately mean someone else gets the nod, if he is more "sign-able" than a guy like Stafford. I think this is what Miami did last year when they were looking at a few people and finally settled on Jake Long, who was not the best player on the board. If you are bound and determined to reach a contract agreement and avoid all the anxiety, you might be willing to compromise just a bit in order to concentrate on those other four picks in the first two and a half rounds.

Who knows – if Stafford chooses to be a pain in the neck, it could be the luckiest stroke the Lions could hope for.

And then we could see some sliding.