NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions – Cinderella Seahawks?

Those making NFL divisional playoff predictions are wary of the possibility of a "Cinderella Seahawks" story coming out of Seattle, where Pete Carroll’s team pulled an incredible upset over New Orleans last weekend. On Sunday the Seahawks will try to advance against the Chicago Bears, the NFC betting North champions, in post-season action that begins at 1 PM ET at Soldier Field in Chicago. If you are making you’re NFL divisional playoff predictions, you know that the bears are a ten-point favorite, with the total posted at 41.5 points.

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Seattle Seahawks (8-9 SU & ATS) at Chicago Bears (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Live at Soldier Field

Chicago, IL

Sunday, January 16 — 1 PM ET

TV: Fox

NFL Divisional Playoff Prediction Odds:

Chicago -10

Seattle +10

Total 41.5

Here are some of the NFL Divisional trends as they impact the Playoff Prediction

• Seattle has played nine of its last ten games OVER the total
• Seattle has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
• Seattle has lost 14 of its last 17 road games SU
• Seattle has covered three of its last 17 road games
• Chicago has played five of its last six games OVER the total
• Chicago has won seven of its last nine games SU
• Chicago has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
• Chicago has won 16 of its last 23 home games SU

Last Saturday the Seattle Seahawks executed one of the more amazing victories in recent years in the National Football League. As a team going into the playoffs with a 7-9 record as champions of the weak NFC West, they were a ten-point underdog to the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. They came back not once, but twice form ten-point deficits, tallied 41 points, held off a New Orleans rally, and along the way got a touchdown run from Marshawn Lynch (not even a member of the team at the start of the season) that will be replayed for years to come. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 272 yards and four touchdowns, and he went down the field too. It was a great moment for the team and for the very vocal crowd at Qwest Field, but the question is how much this effort impacts the way we should look at this NFL divisional playoff prediction.

In other words, is there a positive carry-over here? Can the Seahawks repeat that performance? Is this a team that is just starting to jell? Can they actually win for a second time at Soldier Field this season?

To be perfectly honest, I’m skeptical about all that. For one thing, the Saints threw the ball 60 times last week, because they were short on running backs, and they proved to be quite vulnerable to the pass. The Bears are going to be a bigger challenge in that area, and they have created more balance with Matt Forte in the backfield. Forte had eleven yards on eight carries the last time these teams met, but after the bye week he’s had 626 yards and 4.7 yards a carry.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that may have a bearing on this NFL Divisional Playoff Prediction:

• Seattle has covered three of the last four meetings
• The last five meetings have gone OVER the total
• Four of the last six meetings in Chicago have gone OVER the total

Jay Cutler got sacked 27 times in the first six games he played in, and that included six times in the 23-20 loss to Seattle. In the last nine games he has suffered only 25 sacks. That constitutes an improvement, and it is all part of the adjustment Mike Martz has made in the Chicago offense. You’ve always got to be worried about the speed he has in the receiving corps, with the likes of Johnny Knox and Devin Hester; Forte is going to be a threat out of the backfield, and a tight end (Greg Olson) has actually caught 41 passes in a Mike Martz offense.

If there is something about this NFL divisional playoff prediction that would worry Chicago’s backers, it’s that while Hasslebeck is making his eleventh playoff start, Cutler has never been in the post-season. And in that case, it certainly helps that Cutler is at home, or more specifically, that Seattle is on the road, as they have dropped 14 of the last 17 as a visitor, both straight-up and in the NFL odds. That’s why the Seahawks’ win at Chicago was seen as such a surprise.

Listen, we liked Seattle last week, because we saw a lot of things coming together in a "one-off" situation. But the straight-up win was improbable because of the numerous injuries to Seattle’s offensive line, the hip and wrist injuries to Hasselbeck, which are making Julius Peppers salivate, the 31st-ranked rushing game, the banged-up defense, which has been hit hard in the secondary, and so on. I can’t see lightning striking twice here. Those factors are big in our NFL divisional playoff prediction, as is the fact that Seattle is off the artificial turf and away from the friendly crowd. Also, when they lose, they lose HUGE. There has not been one loss this season that has come by less than fifteen points. A bad team can pull off an upset at home, but they’re not going to transform themselves in a week or two. The 7-9 record was no accident. We’re laying the points in this NFL divisional playoff prediction.

JAY’S PLAY: CHICAGO -10 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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