NFL Championship Weekend – Battle for Super Bowl XLIV

NFL Weekend Preview

There’s only three games remaining on the NFL betting board this season, so make sure to get in on Sunday’s conference championship games to get your fix.

In the NFC, it’s a matchup of the conference’s two best teams when the New Orleans Saints clash with the Minnesota Vikings at the Superdome.

It’s been evident since about the fourth week of the season that these two teams were the elite in the NFC. Dallas, Arizona, and Green Bay made a push, but in the end the trio was no match for New Orleans or Minnesota.

The scene in the AFC is much different. The Indianapolis Colts have been among the best franchises in the NFL for the better part of the decade. It wasn’t even mildly surprising when the Colts started the season 14-0 SU (10-3-1 ATS) before resting its starters down the stretch.

Indianapolis meets the upstart New York Jets on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, where it’ll be the overwhelming favorite. That said, it’s hard to look past a Jets team that’s the hottest wager going after pulling off upsets at Cincinnati and San Diego to set up a date with the Colts.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5, 39) – 3 PM ET

Winners of seven of their last eight both SU and against the number, the Jets (11-7, 11-7 ATS) face the team that had the most success against their vaunted defense during the streak when they take on the Colts (15-2, 11-5-1 ATS).

With its 17-14 win as 7.5-point underdogs at San Diego last week, New York has allowed only 9.4 points per game during its current run. That includes a 29-15 win at Indianapolis in Week 16, when the Jets covered easily as 3-point pups against the NFL pointspread.

Bettors should take that victory with a huge grain of salt. The Colts led the game 15-10 before pulling its starters in the third quarter, so don’t read too much into the Jets’ upset. More importantly, Indy’s 15 points were the most New York allowed to any team during its profitable stretch.

Bettors should also note the Jets didn’t exactly outplay the Chargers, who outgained New York Jets 343-262 in the upset. If not for a pair of turnovers and three missed field goals, San Diego would have booked its ticket to the AFC Championship Game instead of the Jets.

The Colts are riding quite the hot streak of their own, if you discount a pair of late-season losses to New York and Buffalo. Indianapolis has won and covered in its last six games when its starters play the entire game coming off its 20-3 win as 6.5-point chalk against Baltimore last week.

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Minnesotaat New Orleans (-3.5, 52.5) – 6:40 PM ET

It almost goes without saying that bettors should expect a shootout when the Saints (14-3, 9-8 ATS) host the Vikings (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) on Sunday night at the Superdome.

Both teams rank in the top five in total offense, and figure to lean heavily on their respective passing games on Sunday night. Drew Brees and New Orleans Saints sport the league’s most balanced air attack, and finished the regular season first in scoring offense (31.9 PPG).

Minnesota came into the season as a run-first team, but Adrian Peterson hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since mid-November. Since the beginning of the season, Brett Favre has morphed the Vikes’ offense into a pass-oriented unit centered around dynamic options Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian.

It’s on defense where things get a little shady for both teams, making the over the sharpest play regardless of which club you back against the spread.

Minnesota Vikings is second against the run (87.1 YPG), but is only 19th against the pass (218.4 YPG) despite sporting the league’s best pass rush. The Vikings racked up 48 sacks this season, including 14.5 from co-NFC leader Jared Allen.

Allen might have a harder time getting loose if fellow defensive end Ray Edwards (knee) can’t go. Edwards had three sacks in Minnesota’s 34-3 pasting as 2.5-point favorites of Dallas last week, but was held out of practice on Wednesday. Defensive tackle Kevin Williams (knee) also missed practice on Wednesday.

The Saints were only 24th against the pass (235.2 YPG) this season, but they figure to perform better than that on Sunday. Cornerback Jabari Greer’s return from injury has allowed safety Darren Sharper to return to the role that made New Orlean’s defense successful earlier in the season.