NFL Betting Tips – Spread Busters in the Divisional Round

It’s one of the most assured weekends for guys that love home favorites, but before you go throwing your money around the sportsbook for the divisional playoff round, there are a few key players that you have to be concerned about. We’re looking at spreads that are moving all over the board already, and there’s a reason: all eight teams this weekend are stacked with talent.

We all know how insane Vincent Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald can be. We’re almost sure that Peyton Manning can protect our betting dollars, and that Brett Favre will somehow find a way to win games. We’re not talking about those guys. Call them “x-factors” if you want, but I prefer to call these guys “spread busters” because we never take them in to account.

So which guy on the underdogs to you have to be worried about? These guys could mean the difference between you covering a spread with a home fave, or losing your UNDER play because you didn’t take these guys in to consideration.

New York Jets – Braylon Edwards (WR)

Drops. That’s the only thing we think about when we consider Braylon Edwards, and it was something he proved when he dropped a great bomb from Sanchez against the Bengals. In the 2009 regular betting season, Braylon was targeted 95 times and caught the ball just 45 times for 680 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The problem is that when we’re tallying points for and figuring out whether to grab the OVER/UNDER, Braylon isn’t part of the conversation because, as we know, he tends to drop more passes than he catches. This, however, is a bit unfair of a criticism on Braylon.

For starters, he has only been on the Jets since Week 5 and had to develop chemistry with a rookie quarterback who was streaky and inconsistent. While in Cleveland, Braylon had to adapt to catching from two different starting quarterbacks. It’s not fair to say that it’s all his fault.

Consider at the same time how low the TOTAL for the Jets-Chargers game is. The Jets have been averaging +4.3 points more than a defense usually allows, and it’s not like they’ve been playing defensive slouches. If Braylon catches that touchdown, that average boosts up to +5.7. This is a team that’s very capable of scoring a truck load of points over what I see as an overrated defense from San Diego.

The other part that has me concerned about the Jets in this one is Dirty Sanchez returning to California…but that’s something I’ll cover later this week. For now, don’t count Braylon out of Sunday night’s game. He’s one guy who could destroy your bet if you underestimate what he’s capable of.

Jets-Chargers – Total of 42.5

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Dallas Cowboys – DeMarcus Ware (DE)

Steven Hutchinson is injured with back and knee problems, and though the all-world tackle has been excessively productive at protecting both Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre’s, best interest, he could prove to be a fatal link in the chain of security for the Vikings’ betting investors. The main reason is that Dallas has become extremely good at disguising their 3-4 defense, allowing DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to run absolutely wild on opposing backfields.

Everyone says that Dallas’s rushing game will have a big impact on Minnesota this weekend, but I’m not convinced.

Seriously, the only backs that do well against Minnesota’s AWWE trench line are north-south runners and the one that Dallas has is nursing a swollen knee (re: Marion Barber). Dallas knows this and releasing Ware to haunt Favre and Peterson has to be the main focal point of the defense on Sunday. That’s why this TOTAL is slowly, but surely, shrinking.

Cowboys-Vikings – Total of 48.0 (moving down to 45.5)

Baltimore Ravens – Domonique Foxworth (DB)

Want to know where Randy Moss disappeared to on Sunday? Underneath the blanket coverage of Foxworth. He had a lot of safety help from Ed Reed, but Baltimore’s secondary stud allowed just 48-yards against for Moss and was more than effective in completely shutting him down. The former Maryland prospect is lost in the spotlight to Reed, Lewis and the big names on Baltimore’s defense, but he’s one of the more important facets of the pass coverage.

More importantly, he’ll be the reason you might be excessively frustrated with Reggie Wayne this weekend. Against Baltimore this season, Wayne had 7 catches for 89 yards but was held out of the endzone as the Ravens held the Colts to just 17-points. Foxworth’s plastic wrap coverage of Wayne in that game led to Ed Reed’s interception, and the Colts know that he’ll be a factor in this game…even if the betting community doesn’t.

Ravens-Colts – Total of 46.5

Steve Breaston – Arizona Cardinal (WR)

It wasn’t just Breaston’s heroic effort in the steed of Anquan Boldin that makes me excited about the Cardinals’ chances to foil another favorite in the NFC. Against Green Bay, he caught 7 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown, but what makes Breaston even more dangerous against the Saints is his kick returning ability.

The Cardinals will likely enjoy the return of Boldin this weekend, and they’ll need him against a pick-happy and zealous defense from New Orleans. It’s no secret that the Saints are one of the worst special teams squads in the league, and with Breaston rested this weekend ready to do some damage, he’s one guy you need to keep in your BetOnline NFL betting consideration. No team fails to bounce back from a poor twist of fate in the playoffs worse than the Saints right now, and a special teams touchdown would ruin the day for New Orleans giving Arizona the opening they need to melt down the scoreboard.

Cardinals-Saints – Total of 56.5

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