NFL Betting Odds and Pick – Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Carolina Panthers (0-2 SU & ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1 SU & ATS)

Monday, September 28 – 8:30 PM ET

BetOnline NFL betting odds:  DALLAS -8.5, Total 47

In football betting odds, the Cowboys are listed as a 8.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 47 points.

Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• CAR has covered one of its last five games
• CAR has lost four of its last five games SU
• CAR has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• CAR has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• DALL has covered two of its last six games
• DALL has lost four of its last six games SU
• DALL has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• DALL has covered four of its last six home games
• DALL has won five of its last seven home games SU
• DALL has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total

Also…

• DALL has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
• Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total

Every time Tony Romo throws an interception or two that contributes to a loss, we keep hearing about his failures in playoff games and how he "can’t win the big one." Of course, the fact that Dallas might not get close to the big one without a guy like Romo to make some big plays is something that goes without consideration.

If you want to talk about playoff game failures, you may be looking in the direction of Jake Delhomme.  It seemed like he coughed up the ball every time he touched it in last year’s home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals. This season he had four interceptions in the opening loss to Philadelphia, and one more against Atlanta last week.

If you’re wondering who is more likely to make the big mistake, the answer should be Delhomme. But when you look at what happened to the Dallas Cowboys last week, it could be Tony. Certainly Romo is the guy who is more likely to make the big play downfield.

Felix Jones is averaging 9.1 yards a carry, so you know he is a guy who can go end-to-end, and Marion Barber has 203 yards in the two games. Receivers who were not known as long-ball threats have made very big plays. Dallas certainly has what you would call a "quick strike" offense, at least as it has been displayed in that win over Tampa Bay, when they were going against a team in a new defense for the first time. This may be all great news, but it doesn’t tell the whole story on this game.

Last year, when Dallas and the Giants  played at Texas Stadium, the Cowboys sacked Eli Manning eight times. This year, at the new stadium, they sacked him not at all. In fact, the Cowboys have recorded no sacks and no interceptions in the two games. Could it be that teams can afford extra special attention to DeMarcus Ware because there is no one else who poses a threat to the passer? Maybe. This is an area of concern, because Dallas led the league in sacks last year, and still did not intercept too many passes.

Do not discount that the Carolina Panthers can play a little keepaway with running backs DeAngelo Williams (who hasn’t fumbled the last 502 times he’s touched the ball) and Jonathan Stewart. And try this one on for size – Delhomme HAS won some playoff games; HAS taken a team to the Super Bowl, while Romo hasn’t quite done the same.

Maybe my point is this – in this contest, which will be played in front of the whole country, don’t expect that Carolina will not show up just because Jerry Jones would like to have a resounding win in his $1.2 billion palace. I’m not sure I am willing to lay this many points with the Cowboys against a team that still has enough components from a playoff team to make things interesting in the division or wild card race. I’m taking with Carolina, the 8.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NFL betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  CAROLINA +8.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)