NFL Betting Line Picks – Chargers-Chiefs on Monday Night Football

If the San Diego Chargers are truly the Super Bowl XLV contenders people are making them out to be, then they better prove it be trouncing the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football as -4.5 road favorites on the NFL betting line.

Late in the preseason, the Chiefs actually started to build some hype as an outside shot to win the AFC West. I’m not going to argue that the division isn’t wide open (because I made a case that Oakland can contend for the division crown over the summer…and screw you, I’m sticking with it), but I just don’t see how the Chiefs do it.

What’s not helping any action on their side of the NFL betting line this Monday night is the fact that they’re just 1-13 SU in their past 14 games at home. They’re also 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at Arrowhead when facing the San Diego Chargers.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 60% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

Look, I can be as optimistic about any team before the season starts. But now that real money on real games is flowing in, I’m not willing to take chances. The  Chiefs have too many questions that don’t have sufficient answers.

The first of which is how good Matt Cassel really is. In his second year as an NFL starter, Cassel completed just 55 percent of his passes for 2,924 yards and 16 touchdowns, along with 16 interceptions. He was sacked a painful 42 times and earned himself a brutal 69.9 quarterback rating.

A lot of that had to do with the patchwork receiving corps, which is somewhat improved. Chris Chambers is still there catching deep balls, and people expect Dwayne Bowe to turn the corner. Rookie Dexter McCluster is an incredible talent, but he’ll be hard to find on the field at 5-foot-8. Again, there’s nothing here to be excited about.

San Diego Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Monday, September 13th — Arrowhead Stadium — 10:15pm EST

NFL Betting Line: San Diego -4.5 (45)

The growth of Jamaal Charles alongside newly acquired Thomas Jones is the backbone of what this team needs to do to take a step in the right direction. Charles gained 1,120 rushing yards on just 190 attempts and scored 7 touchdowns last season. He also caught 40 passes for an additionally 297 yards with a receiving touchdown to boot.

He’ll get better, and the offensive line will be good. Thomas Jones will serve as adequate relief to keep Charles’ load relatively light. Do I expect Jones to be the AFC rushing champion for a second year? Not without Tony Richardson and Alan Faneca.

Which brings me back to the San Diego Chargers, a team that is being sandbagged for having problems with Vincent Jackson. Jackson’s biggest snafu in this whole contract debacle is believing he’s actually one of the best receivers in the league. This isn’t Fantasy Football. This is NFL football with real NFL betting lines.

The Chargers already boast another 6-foot-5 tower in Malcolm Floyd, and Legedu Naanee not only brings a great first name to the league, he adds a speedy possession guy to the mix as well.

San Diego’s real problem is whether or not Ryan Matthews is all he’s cracked up to be. While he’s been impressive in preseason, I’m not buying that he’ll last the brunt of the season. And for the last time, Darren Sproles is not a suitable replacement at tailback. For the time being, I’m willing to give Matthews a shot but as the violence of a 17-week season wages on, Matthews won’t be able to keep up with the length of the schedule.

Philip Rivers has more problems than he has answers for, and if he’s really the elite quarterback his numbers suggest he is, then he’ll win this year without a stacked offensive team. This game is more about what Rivers can do on the NFL betting line than anything else.

For my money, I’m not betting against him. A loss to the Chiefs will almost instantly sway me, but I like the guy and I trust his leadership. It’s his show now, and if he can’t shatter a low hanging NFL betting line against the woeful Chiefs, then the doubts of many will flood in. Until then, he’s got my vote.

Furious NFL Betting Pick – San Diego -4.5 (UNDER)