NFL Betting Free Picks – Baltimore Ravens Visit Division Rival Bengals

When the 2010 NFL betting season is young, and we don’t have a lot of data to harvest and break down, these are the types of matchups I absolutely hate. By all rights and purposes the Baltimore Ravens should steam roll the Cincinnati Bengals, but there are a couple things about this game that I’m nervous about. Cincinnati is still a ticking time bomb in my eyes so I’m going to spend the next 500 words talking you and me into thinking Carson Palmer can’t be trusted. Here goes!

I don’t want to get caught in the blast if the Bengals decide to drop a crap load of points on the board and continue their 7-3 SU and ATS record when playing the Ravens. They’re talented, they’re cohesive to a certain degree and they have a strong armed quarterback in Carson Palmer. So why haven’t they shown a glimpse of that yet?

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Well one thing is that they had the wind ripped from their sails when the Patriots racked up 24 unanswered points on them in Week 1. I don’t think Baltimore can ravage them offensively like that, but I’m almost positive that the Ravens can molest the offensive line and get inside Palmer’s head early on. Did you see how easily they rattled Mark Sanchez?

The Baltimore Ravens allowed just 60.0 yards of passing last weekend against the supposedly high-power offense of the Jets, and the next victim on their hit list will be Palmer. I’m not totally convinced that Palmer ever mentally recovered from his knee injury. He posted huge numbers in garbage time last weekend, but didn’t win the game when he needed to.

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Sunday, September 19th — Paul Brown Stadium — 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -2 (39.5)

Ultimately I’m more scared of betting on the Bengals and having them implode like they always do, rather than betting against them and having them make me look like an idiot. You want some bad metrics? How about the Bengals’ 1-8 ATS record in their past 9 games, as well as their 1-4 ATS record when playing at home.

People are hanging Baltimore’s offense out to dry for only dropping 10-points on the Jets, but those people just don’t get the game of football or NFL betting in general. The Jets still have a seriously scary defense, and the fact that Joe Flacco was able to march down the field at times against a defense that stacked is pretty solid overall. The team coughed up bad turnovers, but their defense would constantly bail them out.

The Ravens defense isn’t a team that just holds you off the scoreboard, they’re a team that destroys you mentally. Ray Lewis has played against Palmer for years, and while Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco are still in tow, they need Palmer to get his head out of his butt and start commanding the field like a champion. Until he does so, there’s no way I can put my NFL betting dollars behind Palmer.

Baltimore is the real deal this year which is why I ranked them as the fourth best team in my Power Rankings this week. They proved that their defense can still put the clamps on a talented offense. Now it’s time for Flacco and Boldin to unleash hell on the offensive side and secure their stock as an NFL betting gold mine.

Furious NFL Betting Pick – Baltimore -2.0 (OVER)

Bet on the AFC North Division winner here!