NFL Betting – Falcons vs. Rams

Week 11 of NFL betting features an improving team vs. one of the best in the NFC.

The 7-2 Atlanta Falcons visit the 4-5 Rams in an afternoon game that looks great for bettors.

Sunday, Nov 21 @ 4:05pm EST on FOX

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NFL Odds: Atlanta Falcons (-3) at St. Louis Rams (+3)

Total: 43.5

It has been a weird year and the St. Louis Rams are an excellent illustration of the way in which it has been. They are a team that is seemingly pretty bad. They have a rookie quarterback who has held his own, though he still looks like a rookie. Their defense is nothing impressive and their one star has had a disappointing season. However, by virtue of the fact that there is a heavy concentration of bad teams in the NFC West, the Rams have managed a 4-5 record and a close point differential. The Falcons are the best team they have played yet this season.

Atlanta Offense

Matt Ryan is not flashy but he is one of the league’s best and smartest quarterbacks. He has thrown just 5 interceptions thus far this season – an amazing 1.5% of his throws. With his play, the Falcons have emerged as a top NFC contender. Roddy White has been fantastic as both a go-to guy and a deep threat. Tony Gonzalez is beginning to show signs of age, though he remains solid.

With Michael Turner and Jason Snelling taking the lead on the ground game, the Falcons have a solid offense that more than gets the job done. They’re in the top half of the league with 128 rushing yards and 241 passing yards/game.

St. Louis Offense v. Atlanta Defense

Going into this season, the concern for the Falcons was their pass defense, and that has shown to be their weakness. However, this is a problem for a completely different reason than expected. Their pass rush was terrible last season, but it has been much improved this year – led by John Abraham who has compiled 8.0 sacks. The secondary needs some work – and they have given up 245 passing yards/game.

Sam Bradford, like most rookie quarterbacks, is still learning to sense the rush and has taken a lot of sacks. Further, he doesn’t have the receivers to exploit the weak Atlanta secondary. This is a bad matchup for the Rams.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)

This is as easy a pick as has been made all year. The Rams have overachieved record wise but going up against a tough opponent in the Falcons will expose their weaknesses for what they are. Getting the 7-2 Falcons favored by a field goal is a gift.