NFL Betting Advice – Take Buffalo and the Points vs. Pittsburgh

My NFL betting advice is to go against public opinion on Sunday and back the Buffalo Bills versus the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 28th.

Pittsburgh is coming off of an awesome 35 to 3 victory over the Oakland Raiders as -9 point favorites in the sportsbook last Sunday. The Steel Men dominated the Raiders behind their terrific defense, but that same defense is one of the reasons that I prefer Buffalo this Sunday.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

When: Nov. 28th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Sirius-XM 1257 (PIT) 127 (BUF)

NFL Betting Line

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 -110 O 43 -110

Buffalo Bills +6 -110 U 43 -110

The trends actually favor Buffalo in this game.

• The Buffalo Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as the underdog.
• The Buffalo Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up victory.

The Steelers still believe that the best path to success is to pass the ball on offense. Yes, it worked last week versus Oakland but more often than not, it causes the Steelers to hand the ball over to their opponent in less time than they would probably prefer to do so.

One of the reasons for my NFL betting advice to back the Bills in this game is that the Steelers fail to use awesome running back Rashard Mendenhall enough. Mendenhall could be a Top 5 back in the league if the Steelers would just concentrate on the rush more. Granted, injuries to the offensive line have made Pitt look more to pass on offense, but the fact remains that if opponents bottle Mendenhall up early, the Steelers give up on feeding him.

That could turn into an issue for Pitt this Sunday because Buffalo is the worst team in the NFL at stopping the rush. The Bills allow 163.5 yards per game on the ground. If Pitt gives up on the rush in their game versus Buffalo on Sunday, then the Bills might be able to win this game straight up as well as covering the spread.

Buffalo’s offense is tailor made to exploit Pittsburgh’s less than stellar secondary. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns versus Cincinnati last week. New superstar wide receiver Steve Johnson had 8 catches for 137 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he wasn’t the only man that Fitz threw the ball to. Fitz targeted Lee Evans 8 times and both Donald Jones and Fred Jackson 5 times each.

Buffalo’s passing game is very, very good and Pitt’s pass defense allows 239 yards per game against it. That’s another reason to make backing the Bills part of my NFL betting advice for this week, but that’s not the biggest reason I like Buffalo at +6 in the sportsbook.

Pittsburgh has a horrible tendency to follow up victories with losses. They absolutely punished Tampa Bay 38 to 13 and then lost 14 to 17 to rival Baltimore the very next week. They got lucky versus Miami in a 23 to 22 victory, but then lost to New Orleans 10 to 20 the next week. They beat Cincinnati 27 to 21, in another lucky win, but then lost to New England 26 to 39.

Now, they’re coming off of a 35 to 3 ass whipping of the Oakland Raiders. They travel to Buffalo and take on a Bills team that is designed to exploit the issues they have on defense.

I have to back the Bills in this game. That’s some of my best football betting advice for Sunday.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills +6 -110

Log onto the sportsbook and get more free NFL betting advice!