NFL Betting Advice – How To Bet Patriots -14.5 Against Bills

The easiest NFL betting advice I can give you in the matchup between the frustrated New England Patriots and the embittered Buffalo Bills is that the home team will crush the visitors. The hard part is discerning whether or not Tom Brady and Randy Moss can help cover a monster -14.5 NFL betting line.

The Patriots have won the last 10 meetings between these two teams and hold the edge on the line with a 6-3-1 ATS record in those games. To make matters even easier for you on the moneyline, New England is 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games, while Buffalo has gone a measly 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS when travelling. In Foxboro, the Bills are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 visits.

Yet the number on the Patriots might take a hit now that Kevin Faulk is out with a season ending ACL tear in his knee. It doesn’t feel like a big loss, but Faulk is an integral part of this offense. He’s a strong pass catcher out of the backfield and their go-to guy on third downs. The Patriots are 14-and-24 (58.3 percent) in third down efficiency and that average will take a decisive hit, making this a harder game to dole out NFL betting advice on.

Buffalo has given up 321 yards per game this season, and are 22nd in points against with 24.5 points allowed per game. Nothing that the Bills have done on either side of the field yields much encouragement and the Patriots are going to be garner heavy action from the public simply because people see the Bills as a hopeless team.

Buffalo Bills (0-2) vs. New England Patriots (1-1)

Sunday, September 26th — Gillette Stadium — 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: New England -14.5 (42.5)

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Making matters much, much worse for Buffalo is the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting the start. Fitzpatrick started eight games, played in ten games total, and managed to complete just 55.9 percent of his passes for 1,422 yards, 9 touchdowns and a disheartening 10 interceptions.

Chan Gailey is looking for a spark on offense, which should elicit at least a few chuckles when you consider that Fitzpatrick has averaged a 67.7 quarterback rating in his career. He started against the New England Patriots in Orchard Park last year and went 17-for 25 with 178 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 17-10 loss.

But the dark cloud looming over this game is the mindset of the Patriots, who were upset by the New York Jets decisively last weekend. NFL betting advice would be easy considering that the Bills are visiting the Patriots, but Buffalo has been sneaky at pass defense, giving up just 209.5 yards passing per game. They were, however, skewered by the high-flying Packers for a whopping 346 yards of offense.

Which is what I expect from the Patriots. Randy Moss was held without a reception during the second half, and Tom Brady looked livid after the loss to the Jets. If there’s any team that dials in accordingly following a loss, it’s the Patriots who have lost back-to-back games just twice in the last four NFL betting seasons.

Despite the loss of Faulk, the Patriots are still the Patriots and the Buffalo Bills are still the Bills. There hasn’t been anything in Buffalo’s offense that has really stood out, and they don’t have the passing game overall to give New England the headaches that Mark Sanchez and the Jets managed to hand out last weekend.

Brady is on a revenge kick too, which should affect how you feel about this game. The Faulk injury is a huge loss, but against Buffalo you won’t see the lingering effects. The daunting -14.5 spread is a bit heavy for the Patriots, but the public won’t take Faulk’s absence in to consideration. My NFL betting advice on this game would be to grab the line fast because it’s only going to go up from here.

NFL Betting Advice: Patriots -14.5 (OVER)

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