NFL Betting 101 – Anatomy of a Totals Play

There really isn’t a set formula or textbook method to coming up with a total winner; it involves a logical approach, and it is probably better to take you through the anatomy of a totals play as it happened during the first week of regular season play in NFL betting action.

Let me illustrate what I am talking about, using one of the higher-profile games as an example.

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Dallas played at Washington on Sunday night, and the BetOnline NFL betting line on the game on Sunday afternoon was sitting at 40, with Dallas favored by three points.

Well, I know that Dallas had beaten Washington in eight of the last 12 meetings as the road team, but I also know that the Redskins are getting points at home with a successful new coach and a successful new quarterback. With 90,000-plus at FedEx Field, it’s going to be loud and hostile for the Cowboys.

So what about the total? Well, it was certainly no secret that the Cowboys, who averaged 22 points last season, were having problems with the offensive line, missing left guard Kyle Kosier and right tackle Marc Colombo, not to mention staring Doug Free at left tackle for the first time in place of the departed Flozell Adams.

Offensive linemen do not show up on any fantasy football sheets, so most amateur NFL betting handicappers my not know too much about them, but there are some analysts who consider them to be the most important component of a football team, because they enable the skill players to perform, and the front-line guys are very hard to replace.

I’m not sure whether being without offensive linemen is going to make a team run more or pass more, but I can’t imagine them doing either of those things better. Absences like that can pretty much bring down the efficiency level of an entire offense.

Washington was breaking in Donovan McNabb at quarterback, and Mike Shanahan has been heralded as one of those offensive "gurus" (more so when John Elway was throwing the football for him), but aside from those guys, the offensive personnel was more or less the same as last season.

McNabb had over 3500 yards and 60% completions for the Eagles last season, but Jason Campbell had similar numbers for the ‘Skins, and NFL bettors know that this offense scored 17 points or less in eleven of the 16 games in 2009. So this was not a Redskin team that was going to go wild with scoring.

Certainly the public was bound to be enamored with Tony Romo and his offensive weapons, which included Dez Bryant, the newcomer who got a lot of press during training camp. And McNabb has always been given a little more positive attention than he’s deserved.

As a result, there was an opportunity for some value in the NFL betting line. So what happens? The offensive line indeed becomes a problem for the Cowboys, with a substitute right tackle named Alex Barron holding on the final play to nullify a Dallas touchdown (of course, he had to hold, because the pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, had beaten him badly).

As was pointed out astutely by commentator Cris Collinsworth, the Cowboys had to come out of their game plan a little, calling quick pass plays to mitigate the weaknesses in their line, and that in turn mitigated their own ability to stretch the field.

McNabb did not click all that much with a crew of receivers which, once you get past tight end Chris Cooley, is not all that threatening. There was one offensive touchdown scored, and naturally it wound up going under the NFL betting total. Of course, with the Sunday I was having, I sweated the thing out almost all the way to the end.

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