NFL – AFC Title Game is a Battle of Rookie Head Coaches

Off the field, Rex Ryan has made a name for himself by crying at press conferences, lashing out at the media, crying foul against the league and the refs and drowning us in his own, unfiltered opinion. On the field, he’s led a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez one game away from being a Super Bowl XLIV bet, and has tutored the number one defense in the league. This season, in his first year as the head honcho of any football team, Rex Ryan has made us well aware of his presence.

The exact opposite is the case for Indianapolis Colts’ head coach Jim Caldwell. In fact, Caldwell was so inane as a head coach that I didn’t even bother to learn his name until Week 16. That’s when Caldwell finally made his presence known to the NFL betting community by yanking the Colts starters off the field in the second half and handing a victory to the Jets that allowed them to inch closer to a playoff berth. It not only robbed the Colts’ betting backers of a potential win, it destroyed a perfect season and sent Colts fans in to a frenzy.

You could tell that the players were pissed. Peyton Manning kept his helmet on the rest of the game despite being on the sidelines just so you couldn’t see how disappointed he was. Like any professional would, Peyton refused to throw Caldwell on the bus out of respect. For Colts fans, the loss of a perfect season will be subverted only if they win the Super Bowl.

If you’re a true Colts fan, or just a guy like me who rode their coat tails as a solid betting pick this season, then you’re very familiar with Jim Caldwell. He has been one of Tony Dungy’s sidekicks for the past nine seasons. Caldwell left his post as the head coach of Wake Forest football after eight seasons. He had served at Iowa, Southern Illinois, Northwester, Colorado, Louisville, Penn State and Wake before matriculating to the NFL ranks by Dungy in 2001 as a quarterbacks coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For those who had been intimate with the Indianapolis Colts, it came as no surprise that Caldwell would replace Dungy in 2009.

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The rest of the football world asked the same question I did: “Who the hell is this guy?” followed by “Aw who cares.” It wasn’t really out of any disrespect to Caldwell, but this was Peyton’s team and we all knew that. Caldwell quietly sat on the sidelines calling plays and inspiring his team to play, but really he didn’t have much to do. After all, for the most part, this is a team that has been together for over five years and the veteran leadership in the locker room did half his job for him. Peyton Manning and Dwight Freeney did the rest of the leading on the field.

Yet is Caldwell capable of taking this team over the top as one of the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV? If he did win, he’d be the first coach to win with a new team since Jon Gruden did so with the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a job he ironically took from the Caldwell’s predecessor, Tony Dungy. If that’s an NFL playoff betting trend you’re willing to bank on, then by all means go right ahead. Dungy’s replacements are 1-0 SU/ATS in Super Bowl betting.

Of course there are huge differences between Caldwell and Gruden. First of all, Gruden had been a head coach at the NFL level before with the Oakland Raiders. On top of that, Gruden had an enormous personality that harmonized with the litter of characters he had on the Bucs. As far as I can tell, Caldwell has the personality of a coffee cup.

Which brings me back to the roaring personality of Rex Ryan. For his part, Ryan was an integral member of the 2000 Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. As the defensive coordinator for one of the league’s most terrifying defenses in NFL history, Ryan was heralded as a head coaching candidate and the Jets targeted him after they summarily fired Eric Mangini. Ryan did exactly what was expected of him by building the league’s best defense on the backs of all-world corner Darrell Revis and linebacker Bart Scott. Even in the midst of losing his star defensive-tackle, Kris Jenkins, Ryan motivated and inspired the Jets to become the most lethal and convincing defense in the league.

Now you know the coaches of the AFC title game a little bit better, but who’s more reliable? The x-factors in this game are vast. One of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history will try to hold off a rookie quarterback in the form of Mark Sanchez. One coach has been with his team for nearly a decade, while the other is just one-year in with his new franchise.

Yet if there’s any coach in the AFC that has the tools at his disposal to upset the top-seed in the AFC, and the moxy to back it up, my money would be on Rex Ryan. Unfortunately betting on NFL games is never that simplistic, but the Jets have promising betting trends behind them as well. At 7-1 SU/ATS in their last 8 games and a perfect betting record in their last five road games, Rex Ryan has overcome the doubts of the oddsmakers and the hating of the NFL betting community.

With a victory on the betting line at Super Bowl XLIV, Caldwell or Ryan will become just the third rookie head coach to win a Super Bowl, joining Don McCafferty of the Colts and George Seifert of the Niners. To get that chance, however, one rookie will have to beat the other.