NFC Wildcard Betting – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Ironically, the last time that Dallas had a winning record in December was 1996 and that was the same year America’s Team won their last Super Bowl. It’s not easy to ignore NFL betting trends of the past, especially with Wade Philips 0-4 SU in the playoffs and Andy Reid 7-0 in his last playoff openers, but the tide is turning in the NFC and this may be the Cowboys’ time to strike.

A lot of teams carry truck loads of momentum in to the playoffs, and there are two wildcard teams that could prove dangerous in the playoffs. Green Bay, which plays Arizona this weekend, is one of those teams. The other is Dallas, which strangely went 3-0 SU/ATS to finish the season. It was a strange twist to see Tony Romo pumping his fists instead of pouting on the sidelines in December, but experience and evolution have their part in this. I loved harassing Romo for his late season failures as much as the next guy, but eventually the guy was going to turn the corner.

That time appears to be now.

The Cowboys have allowed just 17-points in their last three games, including back-to-back shutouts of Philadelphia and Washington. It was the first time that Dallas has ever been able to do so in any NFL betting season, and those numbers boosted their ferocious defense to the second overall defensive ranking in the league. They give up just 15.6 points overall with 227.1 passing yards and 85.6 rushing yards against.

It’s seemed like ages since the 3-4 defense in Dallas has been scary, but somehow DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have turned this defense around. The secondary, which was always vulnerable to big plays, has found a renewed sense of vigor recently and their swarming tactics are paying off huge dividends for Cowboys’ bettors.

Dallas -4 vs Philadelphia >> Join to Bet Now

In the NFL playoff bracket, the Cowboys are getting no love from Super Bowl expert picks, but in the first round this game is theirs for the taking. Dallas is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and a daunting 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Saturday, January 9th
Cowboys Stadium, Austin — 8:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Dallas -4 (45)

In Week 17, with so much on the line, Dallas feasted on Philadelphia which looked absolutely morbid. The Eagles lost their first game in seven tries to end the season on a 6-1 SU streak. On the road they’re 4-2 SU in their last 6 games, but just 2-4 SU when they’re playing Dallas. In fact, Philadelphia’s high-octane offense has not been able to solve the Dallas defense this entire season.

Donavan McNabb is the leader of Philadelphia, and has completed 36 passes for 450 yards and just one touchdown against Dallas this year. He’s also thrown two picks. Mobile in the past, McNabb moves with cement shoes in the pocket and his offensive line has not been able to protect him against the locust swarm of Dallas’s 3-4 formation.

Dallas’s rush defense has its problems, especially since their safeties have so much trouble stuffing the run. Brian Westbrook who returned for the final two games of the season was used sparingly. In just 14 attempts he has 49 yards and zero touchdowns, and has been a shell of himself ever since he registered a debilitating concussion against the Washington Redskins in Week 7. In his steed, LeSean McCoy has not been very efficient and much of that has to do with Andy Reid’s persistence in using his passing attack to win games.

There is a small side of me which feels that Reid has some tricks left in his bag. While Westbrook was a no-show in the final two games of the season, Reid may be reserving Westbrook’s potential as a surprise for the playoffs. And of course, they have Weapon X in their pocket in the form of Michael Vick who did not touch the field in the final two games of the season after being used as a secret weapon against Atlanta and the New York Giants in Weeks 13 and 14.

I am very hesitant about this game because Philadelphia is known for combusting late in the season as Andy Reid botches fourth quarter play calls. Even more infamous is Tony Romo’s playoff meltdowns. Romo has yet to win a playoff game.

You won’t be faulted for taking either team in this matchup. Philadelphia is a proven playoff entity in its openers, but Dallas has something they’ve never had before and that’s a quarterback who will play without a sense of entitlement. Against Seattle a few years back, Romo was sloppy. Against the Giants two seasons ago Romo laughed as his team continued to go three-and-out until he realized, “Holy crap…we can actually lose this game!”

Romo will enter this game with a renewed sense of urgency and that will prove to be the kicker in this game. I think that Reid will try and pull some new tricks out of the bag, but those won’t be enough as Dallas’s defense steps up to make the stops when necessary. This has been an NFL season of firsts, so bet on Phillips and Romo to notch their first playoff victory at the expense of the Eagles.

Furious Free Pick: Dallas -4 (OVER)