NFC Wild Card Betting – New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Jets vs. Bengals (-2)
(O/U) 34½
Saturday, January 9 4:30 PM ET

If looking for a high-scoring shootout, this isn’t the game for you. The Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 SU, 7-8 ATS, 6-9 O/U) and New York Jets (9-7 SU, 8-7 ATS, 6-8-1 O/U) square off in an AFC wild card matchup that figures to be a major defensive battle, and a very close and entertaining game.

The Bengals didn’t have anything to play for in their regular season finale against the Jets, having already clinched the AFC North crown and a berth in the playoffs prior to Week 17.

However, Cincinnati’s resounding 37-0 loss to their wild card opponents may have given the aggressive Jets a huge psychological edge heading into Saturday’s opening-round showdown.

Now, the Bengals will try to extend their Cinderella season while the Jets look to take down Cincinnati for the second consecutive week. Either way – one team’s postseason is coming to a swift end – and I know exactly which one.

New York 411

• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Jets last 6 games overall.

The Jets defeated Cincinnati 37-0 in Week 17, covering the NFL moneyline as a 10-point favorite as Thomas Jones rushed for 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Brad Smith also rushed for 92 yards and one touchdown on four carries out of the wildcat.

While the Jet’s regular season finale was off the board for NFL football gambling experts, the Jets have gone a robust 4-1 ATS over its last five games and respectable 5-4 ATS over its last nine games overall.

New York ranked 20th in total offense, but boasted the league’s top-ranked rushing attack (148.8 ypg) while ranking 17th in scoring (21.8 ppg).

Defensively, New York ranked first in total yards and first against the pass, allowing just 152.9 yards per game through the air.

The Jets also ranked eighth in the league against the run (98.6 ypg).

Cincinnati 411

• Bengals are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bengals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
• Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Under is 9-0 in Bengals last 9 games as a home favorite.

Not only did the Cincinnati lose to New York in its regular season finale, but the Bengals lost three of its final four regular season games overall and has gone a dismal 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.

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The Bengals ranked 24th in total offense and 26th in passing, but fielded the league’s ninth-best rushing attack (128.5 ypg). Cincinnati ranked 22nd in scoring, averaging just 19.1 points per game.

Like their counterparts in this contest, the Bengals thrived on the defensive side of the ball this season, ranking fourth in total yards allowed, sixth against the pass (203.1 ypg) and seventh against the run (98.3 ypg). Cincinnati ranked sixth in points allowed, limiting their opponents to just 18.2 points per game.

What the Jets need to do to win

First and foremost, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has to be careful with the football. In five of New York’s seven losses this season, Sanchez tossed multiple interceptions, effectively lessening New York’s chances of winning any of those games.

Next, New York must stop Cedric Benson and the Bengals’ bruising ground game. If New York can bottle up Benson and backup Larry Johnson, harassing quarterback Carson Palmer will be much easier for New York’s aggressive defense.

Conversely, New York must also run the ball the way they have all season long and get at least two or three big plays out of its passing attack.

What the Bengals need to do to win

I think Cincinnati needs to be able to run the ball somewhat effectively. If the Bengals can’t run the ball, New York’s blitzing Defense will get a chance to pin its collective ears back and go after Palmer with reckless abandon.

I also believe head coach Marvin Lewis will need to open up his offensive playbook better than he has all season and let Palmer take a few more chances downfield than he normally does. If the former Heisman Trophy winner can take advantage of New York’s sometimes overly aggressive defensive back with a pump fake or two, the Jets will be forced to temper their all-out blitz-happy style.

Last but certainly not least, Cincinnati could cruise to victory – if they pester Sanchez enough and force him into a couple of interceptions. This scenario would be the easiest path to victory for the Bengals, but I’m fairly certain that Jets coach Rex Ryan won’t put his rookie quarterback into a situation where he has to win the game by passing the ball.

Analysis: I love Rex Ryan’s aggressive coaching style and outgoing personality and I believe he’s been a breath of fresh air for a league that prides itself on not creating controversy.

Having said that, I’m going to advise you to play the Cincinnati Bengals to win this game and cover the NFC wild card point spread with a close win at home.

NFL Playoff Free Pick – Bengals -2 Points/Under 34½ Total Points