NFC Finals Predictions – Packers Lay Points to Bears

Those engaged in making NFC Finals predictions are aware that the Green Bay Packers, who were the sixth seed in the NFC, are laying points against their long-time rivals, the Chicago Bears, in what they hope will be the last stop before the train stops in Arlington.

These teams meet for the first time with a championship on the line, come Sunday at Wrigley Field (natural turf) in Chicago. Game time is 3 PM ET and you can see it on the FOX Network. At stake is a trip to Super Bowl 45. In the odds that will guide our NFC Finals predictions on this game, the Packers are laying 3.5 points on the road, with the over-under priced at 43.5 points.

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NFC Finals Predictions

NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers (12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) at Chicago Bears (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)

Live at Soldier Field

Chicago, IL

Sunday, January 23 –  3 PM ET

TV:  FOX

Odds – NFC Finals Predictions

Green Bay  -3.5

Chicago  +3.5

Total  43.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFC Finals predictions:

• Green Bay has won four of its last five games SU
• Green Bay has played eight of its last ten road games UNDER the total
• Chicago has won eight of its last ten games SU
• Chicago has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• Chicago has played four of its last five home games OVER the total
• Chicago has won four of its last five home games SU

Last weekend the Packers cut through the Atlanta Falcons like they were butter. The 48-21 margin was reflected in the yardage totals, in which Green Bay outgained a very stiff and heartless Atlanta club by a 442-194 margin. In the last four games, Green Bay allowed just 326 yards on the ground. As we make our NFL finals predictions, we note that these teams played each both very early and very late in the season. The first time around, the Packers got 316 passing yards from Rodgers but also committed 18 penalties and suffered form a late fumble by James Jones that led to a winning field goal from Robbie Gould, the difference in a 29-17 Chicago Bears win.

The last meeting was in the season finale, with the Packers needing a win to get into the playoffs, and frankly, they could have out forth a better effort. This time Green Bay committed just four penalties, but they were held under 300 yards by the Bears defense, got just 60 yards on the ground, and converted two of eleven on third down. They won 10-3 in a sloppy game where they failed to cover as an 11.5-point favorite.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on the NFC Finals prediction:

• Green Bay has won four of the last six meetings SU
• The last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Chicago has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team
• Green Bay has won 13 of the last 17 meetings SU as the road team
• Green Bay has covered nine of the last 12 meetings as the road team
• Five of the last six meetings in Chicago have gone UNDER the total

Aaron Rodgers has completed 49 of 63 passes in the two playoff games, accounting for 8.9 yards an attempt, with six TD’s and no INT’s. Obviously he’s been in a great rhythm, something we must figure strongly in any NFC Finals predictions. The Packers proved to be a team that was very comfortable with the "fast track" of Atlanta last week, and conditions should be quite different in Chicago. However, we doubt that any team that plays and practices in Green Bay would be bothered by any kind of weather. One of the things they are most encouraged about is that they can pound the ball a little with James Starks in the backfield. Starks has rushed for 189 yards in the last two games, and he at least offers the threat of the run.

This may indeed be a game that is played close to the vest. One of the two squads may look to "shorten" the proceedings by making use of the running game, although we of course know what both of them have in mind and how they chose to conduct their offense. Both of them think "pass first," but this is not the kind of weather that generally accommodates a Mike Martz offense, which achieved its greatest success working indoors on artificial turf. In a game like this, the critical edge may reside with answering the question as to which of the quarterbacks executes better, and there is only one answer to that. It’s Rodgers, and that’s why we have to side with his Packers – even though they are laying points on the road – and that’s where we go in our NFC Finals prediction.

JAY’S PLAY:  GREEN BAY -3.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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