NFC Conference Championship Full Breakdown with Tim Brown Video Analysis

Peterson Must Have a Big Game For the Vikings to Beat the Saints

The Minnesota Vikings were almost flawless in their NFC Divisional Playoff Game victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings held the ‘Boys to only 3 points and put up 34 against, what was thought to be a good Cowboys’ defense.

Because of that, the Vikings are getting a lot of respect from sports handicappers. New Orleans is only a 4 point favorite to beat the Vikings even though they dominated Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals 45 to 14 in their NFC Divisional Playoff Game.

Tim Brown, the former NFL great, has weighed in on this game via his BetFlix video analysis:

Many NFL fans will point to Brett Favre and the Minnesota defense as the reason for confidence in the Vikings, the truth is that the Vikings will need running back Adrian Peterson to have a terrific game for them to have any shot at winning.

Before getting into whether or not Peterson will be able to run over the Saints, let’s take a look at the NFL Playoff odds in this game.

Minnesota Vikings -4 -110 O 52 ½ -110
New Orleans Saints +4 -110 U 52 ½ -110

Although there are many trends that favor both the Saints and Vikings, none of those are really going to help us find the best wager to make. For instance, the Vikings are 4 and 1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, but 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The New Orleans Saints are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite, but 4 and 0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Instead of concentrating on trends, let’s take a look at what each team needs to do in this game.

Minnesota Must Run the Ball

The New Orleans Saints have the 24 th ranked defense in the NFL. Because of that, it looks like they are suspect to the pass. Perhaps they are based on yards given up per game, but the Saints’ D is one of the most opportunistic in the NFL.

The Saints picked off 26 passes during the regular season and forced Kurt Warner into an interception in their NFL Divisional Playoff victory. If Minnesota wishes to have success against the Saints’ defense, then they’re going to have to get Adrian Peterson going on the ground.

That might be easier said than done. Peterson hasn’t rushed for at least 100 yards since Week 10 of the NFL Regular Season. He’s going to probably need more than 100 for the Vikings to win this game because the only way to beat the Saints is to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.

A.P. just hasn’t played with the same ferocity that he did earlier in the season. If he doesn’t start out well and the Vikings go to the pass too early in this game, then Minnesota will be playing right into the Saints’ hands.

New Orleans will find a way to force Brett Favre into a bad pass or two or three or four in this game if Favre has no option but to pass the ball. Minnesota’s offense this week depends on Adrian Peterson. He will need to have one of those special games for the Vikings to win.

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On Defense Minnesota Must Pressure Drew Brees

Drew Brees has been sacked 20 times this season but 5 of those sacks occurred when the Saints played the Miami Dolphins in Week 7 and 4 of those sacks occurred when the Saints played the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. In other words, sacking Brees isn’t going to be easy, but it’s definitely possible.

The Minnesota Vikings sacked Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo 6 times last week. They’re going to need a game like that in order to stop the Saints from putting up 30 or more points in this game. The Vikings sacked the QB 48 times during the regular season but they only had 11 interceptions. So getting to the quarterback is essential to their success because they aren’t going to pick off a lot of passes.

If they don’t pressure Brees, then they will be in trouble because Minnesota’s pass defense just isn’t very good. It’s okay, but it’s not very good. Now, a lot of that has to do with a nagging injury to their best cornerback, Antoine Winfield, but don’t expect Brees and the Saints to feel sorry for Winfield and the Vikings’ defensive backs.

On Offense New Orleans Must Take Their Time

The Saints rushed for over 150 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. They will have to try and do that again on Sunday in order to beat Minnesota.

The key for New Orleans is to force the Vikings’ pass rushers to play against the run. If they can do that, then they can get the Vikings’ pass rushers out of position, thereby giving QB Drew Brees more time to find his human highlight reels: Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.

Oh, yes, expect the Saints to send a lot of passes towards tight-end Jeremy Shockey as well. The New Orleans Saints will use their big running backs to keep Minnesota guessing.

Once Minnesota understands that it will have to pay attention to both the pass and the rush, the Saints will go after Minnesota’s defensive backs. Expect a lot of Reggie Bush in this game either on sweeps, up the middle or on swing passes in the 1 st quarter.

How the Vikings play the exceptional running back early on will determine what the Saints do later on in the game.

On Defense the Saints Must Stop Adrian Peterson

New Orleans will let Brett Favre try and beat them. As crazy as that sounds, the Saints’ much maligned run defense understands that it will have to step up big time for the Saints to win this game.

Minnesota has no chance unless they can control the clock. Controlling the clock means using Adrian Peterson and at times Chester Taylor to keep the chains moving. Minnesota does not want to test both of the Saints’ exceptional, and now healthy, cornerbacks Tracey Porter and Jabari Greer.

Because Porter and Greer can pretty much cover both Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, Minnesota’s wide receivers, one on one, the terrific Darren Sharper should be allowed to play “center-field”. He will look to pick off Brett Favre passes.

But it all starts with stopping Peterson. Keep Peterson from controlling the game, force Favre into mistakes, and win the game. That will be the goal for the Saints’ D on Sunday.

Intangible of the Game: Saints Free Safety Darren Sharper

Not only is Darren Sharper one of the greatest free safeties to ever play in the NFL, he’s also the most important single player on the Saints’ team this Sunday and it has nothing to do with his play on the field.

Sharper spent the last 4 years playing for the Minnesota Vikings. He spent the 6 years before playing for the Green Bay Packers. So, Sharper knows Brett Favre’s tendencies having practiced against him for 6 years.

He not only knows how Favre plays but he also knows what Minnesota’s defensive schemes look like since he played with the Vikings the past 4 seasons. Darren Sharper, no doubt, is spending a lot of time with Saints’ coach Sean Payton and Saints’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams going over game film involving both Brett Favre and the Vikings’ defense.

Sharper gives the Saints a huge, huge edge in this game.

The Best NFL Playoff Bet Is…

On the Saints to cover the 4 points. New Orleans is just a better team than the Vikings.

Minnesota has a terrific defensive line but d-lineman Ray Edwards, who was brilliant against Dallas, is questionable for Sunday’s game. Antoine Winfield, their top cornerback, isn’t listed on the injury report, but he is feeling the nagging affects of an injury. Linebacker E.J. Henderson has been out of the Vikings’ line-up for a while.

All of the small, nagging injuries will hurt the Vikings quite a bit in this game. Another issue for the Vikings’ D is that it just doesn’t play all that well on the road. Minnesota gave up 27 points to Pittsburgh on the road, 30 points to Arizona on the road and 36 points to the Chicago Bears on the road during the regular season.

The Saints average over 30 points per game in the Superdome. Their defense is healthy and Adrian Peterson, the key to the Vikings’ offense this Sunday, hasn’t had a great game since Week 10 of the regular season. Peterson has also fumbled 7 times this season. That should worry Minnesota because the Saints practice causing turnovers.

Oh, yeah…they also have Darren Sharper. New Orleans should cover the spread.