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New York Mets vs Texas

July 8, 2011

With the summer temperatures quickly heating up, now is the perfect time for baseball bettors to turn up the temperature in the MLB sportsbook with some wise wagers against this weekend’s value-packed MLB Odds.

This week’s ‘MLB Series of the Week’ matchup features the Texas Rangers (40-36 SU, 40-34-2 O/U, 38-38 RL) ) hosting the New York Mets (37-38 SU, 42-29-4 O/U, 42-33 RL) ) in an interleague pairing that will offer diamond bettors a trio of outstanding chances to cash in early and often.

Having said that, let me get started with my breakdown on Friday’s opener of the three-game series.

New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, June 24, 8:05 PM ET, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Radio: NYM: WFAN 660 TEX: 103.3 ESPN
TV: NYM: WPIX TEX: TXA-21

Analysis: New York will bring a two-game winning streak into Friday night’s opener and will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Mike Pelfrey (4-5, 4.70 ERA) for this start.

Pelfrey tossed a complete-game gem against the Angels on Saturday while allowing just one earned run on five hits with five strikeouts in New York’s first complete game of the season. The veteran hurler has not allowed more than two earned runs in three straight games or a single walk in any of the three starts.

The Rangers will counter with hard-luck left-hander Matt Harrison (5-6, 3.16 ERA). Harrison is just 2-3 in his last seven starts despite compiling an impressive 2.06 ERA during the stretch.
Harrison is also just 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA in six home starts this season and 1-1 with one save and a 3.66 ERA in four career starts and four career relief appearances against National League ballclubs.

The Breakdown: While the Rangers have gone a dismal 1-4 in Matt Harrison’s last five home starts as a favorite, I like Texas to eke out the narrow home win against the Mets by getting to New York’s bullpen once Pelfrey departs.

The Mets are 1-4 in their L/5 games against a left-handed starter and an identical 1-4 in their last five interleague road games. Texas is 6-2 in Matt Harrison’s last eight home starts versus a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 games against NL East ballclubs.
The Pick: Rangers to cover MLB Money Line

Saturday, June 25, 4:10 PM ET, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Radio: NYM: WFAN 660 TEX: 103.3 ESPN
TV: FOX

Analysis: New York will hand the ball to left-hander Jon Niese (6-6, 3.70 ERA) in this game while Texas counters with right-hander Alexi Ogando (7-2, 2.66 ERA).

Niese was hit hard in his last start, allowing four earned runs on five hits in four innings of a 7-3 loss to the Angels the last time out.

Ogando struggled to beat the heat in his last start against Atlanta on Sunday, leaving the contest early to get an IV after the fifth inning. Still, Ogando has held the opposition to one run or less in three of his last four starts while allowing two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall.

The Breakdown: While the Mets have gone an impressive 4-1 in Jon Niese’s L/5 starts against a team with a winning record, New York has also gone 1-4 in their last five interleague road games and I don’t think they’ll get the win here.

Texas has gone an unblemished 4-0 in Alexi Ogando’s L/4 home starts and 6-2 in the right-hander’s last eight starts overall.
The Pick: Rangers to cover MLB Money Line

Sunday, June 26, 3:05 PM ET at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Radio: NYM: WFAN 660 TEX: 103.3 ESPN
TV: NYM: SNY TEX: FSSW

Analysis: Young right-hander Dillon Gee (7-1, 3.21 ERA) saw his seven-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in his last start as he allowed four runs on six walks and three hits of a 7-3 loss to Oakland on Tuesday. Still the impressive hurler has held the opposition to two earned runs or less in five of his L/10 starts.

Texas left-hander Derek Holland (6-2, 4.69 ERA) has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts and has compiled a high 6.10 ERA at home this season despite owning a 3-0 record at Arlington.

The Breakdown: Texas has lost two of his last three home starts so I’m going to urge MLB gamblers to back the New York Mets to avoid the series sweep by narrowly pulling out a victory behind their gifted starter Dillon Gee.

The impressive right-hander has allowed just one run over his last two road starts covering 12.0 innings while striking out 10 and walking just two batters.
The Pick: Mets to cover MLB Money Line

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