New Years Eve Horse Picks from Aqueduct

Padding Your Bankroll: Thursday December 31

We have reached the end of the year, one last stab to pad our bankroll before we head into 2010.

The last stakes race in New York for the year is today’s $65,000 Gallant Fox Handicap, a 1 5/8 miles marathon that drew a full field of 12 colts and geldings.

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out three runners, Atoned, Tiger’s Rock, and the likely favorite Nite Light.

Nite Light put in a disappointing effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, but is perfect in two trips on the Aqueduct inner track including winning the Gallant Fox in 2007 by ten lengths.

The Gallant Fox is the middle leg of our Late Pick 3 ticket, and I went four deep hoping we can catch a longshot.

The three race sequence looks like it will offer good value, and it appears we can beat all three likely favorites.

Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 5 Clm $12,500N1Y (2:20 ET)
#12 Yes It’s the Truth   9/2
#8 Neverbeendancin’   8/1
#11 On With It   6/1
#2 Clemens   3/1

Analysis: #12 Yes It’s the Truth raced evenly last out in a third place finish against $16K non-winners of a race in six months, which came off a seven-week break. The gelding takes another class drop here, tagged for $12.5K as the Tony D. barn seeks their first win with this guy, who they claimed for $75K back in April. He does like the inner (9-3-1-2) and has run well on wet tracks in his career.  He gets a jock upgrade to Ramon and finds a spot where he can win for a hot barn.

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#8 Neverbeendancin’ has not seen the winners circle since ’07 where he won on Claiming Crown Day in the Rapid Transit Stakes. That is 16 straight losses, but this is just his fourth go since going to Autrey. Last out the five year old pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fifth, catching an inner surface that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. He ran into repeat winners in his previous three starts. He looks like a good fit here and the barn has been sending out live runners at the meet, nine of his first 14 landing in the exacta.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 8,12 / 2,8,11,12
TRI: 8,12 / 2,8,11,12 / 2,7,8,10,11,12

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 2,7,9 / 1,2,3,10 / 1,2 = $24

AQU Race 7 Alw $44,000N1X (3:16 ET)
#7 Vital Argument, #2 Helvi, #9 Papa’s Nice Cat

#7 Vital Argument set the early fractions in the state bred Damon Runyon and weakened to finish fifth last out in his first go around two turns. Two back this guy came up just a head shy of winning the Finger Lakes Juvie in his first go against winners. Blinkers go on along with Ramon, who could have a big day today. The colt is bred to like a wet track, has shown improvement with each start, and will appreciate the drop into the allowance ranks.

#2 Helvi invades from Maryland for the Val Testerman barn. Last out the colt went gate to wire to break his maiden after coming up short against state breds here in NY two and three back. Note Vega is in to ride, his only mount on the day here and this colt has three sibs that are winners including stakes winner Fly to Me ($339K). The colt will have to show improvement here in his first go against winners but worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.

AQU Race 8 Gallant Fox Hcp (3:44 ET)
#1 Atoned, #2 Tiger’s Rock, #10 Nite Light, #3 Lord Kipling

#1 Atoned gets the call and Pletcher runners make up the top three in here. The four year old was the beaten chalk last out in the Power Lunch, coming up 3/4 of a length behind #7 Borrowing Base. One of his best efforts in his career came in the slop three back winning the Nasty N Bold going 1 1/2 miles. There probably will be some moisture in the track today and this guy should get a good tracking trip behind what could be a lively early pace. He looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle.

#2 Tiger’s Rock will be the highest price of the three Pletcher sends out. The three-year-old colt is coming off a fourth place finish on the turf against Alw-2 company going 1 1/2 miles. He handled today’s distance on poly two back in his first go against winners. He has a strong off track pedigree and still appears to have some upside. He figures to be overlooked on the tote.

AQU Race 9 Clm $15,000N2L (4:12 ET)
#2 Gargantua, #1 Six Flings

# Gargantua pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth when trying non-winners of two last out. He is back with NY breds here and catches a field void of much early speed. Rosie may be able to shake loose in this spot for the Levine barn that has been frigid at the meet (1 for 21). He broke his maiden on the inner last December.

#1 Six Flings saved ground early, split runners and finished up well for the runner up spot last out at this level, beaten two lengths for the top spot. The winner Ask Ommadon returned to check in fourth against state bred Alw-1 foes in his next outing. This is just his second route and this will be his first go around two turns. He showed some tactical speed in sprints at Finger Lakes and should be closer to the pace here breaking from the inside.

Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

• R1: #10 Way to Karakorum   20/1
• R4: #9 Le Bonnie Vie   15/1
• R4: #6 Raynick’s Jet   8/1
• R5: #8 Neverbeendancin’   8/1
• R6: #7 West End   10/1
• R7: #2 Helvi   20/1
• R8: #2 Tiger’s Rock   12/1
• R8: #3 Lord Kipling   10/1
• R9: #9 Living Out a Dream   8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!