New England to Cover ATS Appears One of the Safer NFL Predictions

The New England Patriots to cover the spread in their game versus the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Dec. 26th, appears to be one of the safer NFL predictions for Week 16.

The Patriots were lucky to come out of their game with the Green Bay Packers last Sunday as 31 to 27 victors. Green Bay, with Matt Flynn filling in at QB for Aaron Rodgers, found a way to really mess with the Patriots’ defense.

But the Pats did enough to secure the victory. Now, they take on a team, Buffalo, that pushed them to the edge the first time the two played against each other. Can the Patriots put the Bills in their place on Sunday?

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New England Patriots (12-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-10)

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

When: Dec. 26th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Sirius-XM 127 (NE) 130 (BUF)

NFL Betting Line

New England Patriots -9 -110 O 44 -110

Buffalo Bills +9 -110 U 44 -110

The trends favor neither team in this matchup.

• The New England Patriots are 9 and 2 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
• The New England Patriots are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• The Buffalo Bills are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Buffalo Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

So far, 63% of football handicappers are making the Patriots to cover one of their NFL predictions for Week 16. The Pats had covered 3 games in a row before failing to get close to covering the odds in the Packers game. New England overall has covered in 6 out of 9 games for a 6-2-1 ATS record since their bye.

The Patriots success has everything to do with the awesomeness of their starting QB, Tom Brady. Besides being the best looking man in football, he’s also football’s best player. The dude hasn’t thrown a pick in 9 straight games. He’s thrown for 31 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions this season. His QB rating is an amazing 109. Yes, Mike Vick is having a hell of a year in Philly, but Brady doesn’t have DeSean Jackson to throw to. Brady’s been incredible with Wes Welker and Deon Branch at wide receiver.

But Brady isn’t the only reason to make the Pats to cover one of the better NFL predictions for this Sunday. Brady leads the highest scoring offense in the NFL with 31.9 points per game, that’s true, but the Patriots’ D is awfully good as well. Although the D didn’t show it versus Green Bay, the Patriots have become very adept at shutting down a team’s offense. New England held the New York Jets to only 3 points in a 45 to 3 victory and Chicago to only 7 points in a 36 to 7 victory.

Yes, the Jets aren’t very good offensively anyhow and Chicago had no shot after the snow came down at Soldier Field, but Buffalo isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse either. Since beating Cincinnati 49 to 31 on Nov. 21st, the Bills haven’t scored 20 points in 4 straight games. They scored 16 in a 16 to 19 loss to Pittsburgh, 14 in a 14 to 38 loss to Minnesota, 13 in a 13 to 6 victory over Cleveland, and 17 in a 17 to 14 victory over Miami. Any team that doesn’t average at least 3 touchdowns a game can’t make it to the NFL predictions cover list when having to face the New England Patriots.

Buffalo averages only 19.4 points per game. More importantly, they’ve scored 20 points or more in only 2 out of their last 9 games. The Bills have no shot to keep up with the highest scoring team in the NFL. I see Buffalo getting blown out in this one. I just don’t believe they score 30 against the Pats like they did in Week 3 this season in a 30 to 38 loss.

I’m backing Tom “Goldilocks” Brady and the New England Patriots to cover the spread in this game.

NFL Betting Pick: New England Patriots -9 -110

More NFL predictions are in the sportsbook for Week 16!