Nevada is No Sports Betting Lock vs. Idaho on Nov. 6th

The Nevada Wolf Pack is no lock against the sports betting spread in their game versus the Idaho Vandals on Saturday, Nov. 6th.

The 7 and 1 on the season Wolf Pack is 3 and 5 against the spread and hasn’t covered against the spread in 4 straight games.  Idaho isn’t a great team, but they are 4 and 4 ATS and 4 and 4 straight up.  The Vandals will be looking to win the third game out of their last 5.

Can Idaho do it?  Or, will Nevada break their 4 game non-cover streak?

#23 Nevada Wolf Pack at Idaho Vandals

Where:  Kibbie Dome Stadium, Moscow, Idaho
When:  Nov. 6th, 2010 at 5:00 pm EST
TV: ESPN3.com

NCAAF Betting Lines

Nevada Wolf Pack                   -11 -110          O 66 ½ -110

Idaho Vandals                          +11 -110         U 66 ½ -110

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The sports betting trends clearly favor the Wolf Pack in this game. 

• The Nevada Wolf Pack is 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• The Nevada Wolf Pack is 4 and 0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
• The Idaho Vandals are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Idaho Vandals are 1-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Idaho’s 1 and 4 ATS trend includes the Vandals not covering in their last 3 games.  Louisiana Tech outscored the Vandals 48 to 35 even though the Vandals were 1 ½ point favorites.  They failed to cover a 26 ½ point wagering spread versus New Mexico State in a 37 to 14 victory.  Hawaii beat Idaho 45 to 10 in a game where Idaho was a 15-point sports betting underdog.

So, it appears that the Vandals have their issues as well in this game, but Idaho is playing at home and although they aren’t as good of a team as Nevada, they might be able to keep this one close.  Idaho steps it up at home.  They beat North Dakota 45 to 0 to cover a -20 point spread in Week 1 and then beat UNLV a couple of weeks later by the score of 30 to 7 as -7 point favorites. 

But even if the Vandals step it up will it be enough for them to keep the game within the number versus the high-scoring Nevada Wolf Pack?

Nevada puts up, on average, 42 points per game.  They rack up 520 yards per game.  The Wolf Pack’s offense is ranked 3rd in college football, but the Wolf Pack might be looking ahead in this game as a road battle versus the tough Fresno State Bulldogs looms.  To me, that’s one of the reason to take Idaho ATS in this game.

The Wolf Pack is a better home team than they are a road team.  Hawaii held them to 21 points, for instance, and BYU held them to 27.  Because they play Idaho on the road, the Wolf Pack is most likely going to score less than their average while Idaho’s offense might make some in-roads versus the swiss cheese Nevada D.

That, and the fact that the Wolf Pack are probably looking forward to their game versus Fresno State on Nov. 13th leads me to one conclusion:  Idaho is the team to back to cover the sports betting spread in this game.

Although it’s no popular, I’m taking the points.  I’m going with Idaho in their battle versus Nevada on Saturday.

NCAAF Betting Pick:  Idaho Vandals +11

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Sources:  espn.com, covers.com