NCAAF Spread – West Virginia vs Marshall

It hasn’t been an easy start for John Holliday, Marshall’s new head coach, as his career began with a trip to #2 Ohio State in Week 1 and now welcomes the 23rd ranked West Virginia Mountaineers. The Thundering Herd were thoroughly outclassed by the Buckeyes, falling by a 45-7 final, but should be far more competitive as they will have their home crowd behind them in this one. West Virginia is fresh off a 31-0 rout over Coastal Carolina but should expect to be in a might tighter game against Marshall.

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#23 West Virginia vs. Marshall (Joan C. Edwards Stadium – Huntington, WV)
Friday September 10th at 7 PM ET – TV: ESPN

NCAAF Spread:
West Virginia – PS -12 ½ (-110) ML -475
Marshall – PS +12 ½ (-110) ML +375
Total – 46 ½  

These two teams are very familiar with one another as it is the fifth straight year that they’ve met, and not surprisingly, West Virginia is 4-0. But against the NCAAF Spread, they are only 2-1-1, and that’s the number we’re concerned about. But it should also be noted that the +12 ½ points is the lowest number that they’ve had to cover over that span, so taking them this year comes with some risk.  

You shouldn’t read into Marshall’s big loss last week too much as Ohio State is one of the best all around football teams in the country. This Thundering Herd team is coming off a 7 win season which includes a Bowl win, and are playing at home where they have the best all-time winning percentage of any team in NCAA Football. In Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Marshall is 118-19 which puts them way ahead of Alabama who is in second place.

Here are some NCAAF Spread trends for this matchup:

• Mountaineers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Mountaineers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Thundering Herd are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
• Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. CUSA.
• Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 home games.

West Virginia is good, and I think they win this game, but I don’t think they cover the spread. Marshall will come into this game with all kinds of motivation as they’re playing their home opener and this game is on ESPN in front of a national television audience. I expect this one to be close in the first half, possibly a 10-7 game, with West Virginia pulling away for a 27-17 victory.

NCAAF Spread Prediction: Marshall (+12 ½)