NCAAF Odds – Oregon Sees Path to BCS Title

Those playing against the NCAAF odds this Thursday know that the Oregon Ducks, who have been elevated to #1 in the national polls, see a path to the BCS national title and get the opportunity to show a national audience what they can do, when they host the UCLA Bruins in a Pac-10 game that begins at 9 PM ET at Autzen Stadium (artificial turf) in Eugene, OR. The NCAAF odds on this game make Oregon a 25.5-point favorite in the game, with a posted total of 60.5 points.

UCLA Bruins (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Oregon Ducks (6-0 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Live at Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
Thursday, October 21 –  9 PM ET
TV:   ESPN

NCAAF Odds:
Oregon -25.5
UCLA  +25.5
Total  60.5

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Here are some of the trends as they might impact the NCAAF odds on this game:

• UCLA has covered two of its last six games
• UCLA has played 16 of its last 23 games UNDER the total
• UCLA has lost 14 of its last 19 road games SU
• UCLA has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Oregon has won 16 of its last 18 games SU
• Oregon has won 13 of its last 14 home games SU

Key stats for Oregon — The Ducks lead the nation in total offense, with a hefty average of 567 yards per game. It makes sense that they are also leading the country in scoring, with an average of 54.3 points. Oregon is seventh nationally in pass efficiency defense, second in turnover margin (+9) and second in sacks allowed, with only two. They rank in the top 35 in both rushing and passing yards. LaMichael James is the leading rusher in the country, with 169.6 yards per game. With all of these statistical superlatives, the Ducks would seem to be better than their 3-2 ATS record in the NCAAF odds.

Key stats for UCLA — The Bruins sport the 118th-rated passing offense among 120 FCS teams, as it averages less than 100 yards a game. They are dead last in passing efficiency. The Pistol offense, however, has produced the 13th-ranked rushing attack (223 ypg). Johnathan Franklin is the guy who carries the ball the most, and the sophomore has run for 679 yards, including 216 three weeks ago against Washington State. UCLA is also relatively proficient at getting to the passer, chalking up 18 sacks, but they may have to improve upon the 4.5 yards per carry they have allowed to opponents. 

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence the NCAAF odds on this game:

• UCLA is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings
• Oregon has won seven of the last nine meetings SU
• Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

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The difference between the Pistol offense UCLA puts out there and the version employed by Nevada is that Kevin Prince, who mans the quarterback spot for the Bruins, does not pass as well as Colin Kaepernick, nor does he run with any particular amount of effectiveness (only 110 net yards). It is clear that in order to cover this game in the NCAAF odds, they are going to have to chew clock by running the ball with some degree of effectiveness, play reasonable defense against Oregon’s running game, and win the field position battle. They seem to be decently equipped in the latter department, as Jeff Locke is fifth in the nation at almost 47 yards a punt.

No UCLA team is going to be completely devoid of talent; let’s keep in mind that they went to Austin and ran all over a Texas team that just beat Nebraska. Last week they were stopped cold by California, but that was a Bears defense that had already seen a better Pistol offense from Nevada and had a blueprint to stop it this time. The challenge is not to let Oregon get so far ahead that the run has to be eschewed, because it would make it much tougher for Rick Neuheisel’s team to get the cash by beating the NCAAF odds.

In two of the last three years, UCLA has not performed too badly against Oregon. They had been outmanned and outgunned in both of those seasons, but lost by just seven points to them in 2008 and beat them 16-0 in ’07. In none of the last ten games has Oregon scored more than 31 points against them, and there have been some explosive Duck teams in that time, not to mention some pretty banged up UCLA squads. Another thing to remember is that this line may be somewhat padded because of Oregon’s bloated stats (which the likes of New Mexico, Portland State and Washington State helped out nicely with), and the expectation that the Ducks may try to score some "style points" with a rather tenuous #1 ranking, which is not shared in the BCS, by the way, where Oklahoma is #1. In a small recommendation, we’ll take points with UCLA in the NCAAF odds for Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY:  UCLA +25.5 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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