NCAAF Odds – Nice Duel Of Quarterbacks

Customers following the football betting odds know that when the Florida State Seminoles get together with the Wolfpack of North Carolina State, it will be a nice duel between two of the best quarterbacks in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Of course, we’re talking about Russell Wilson and Christian Ponder, who will duke it out along with their teams on Thursday night at 7:30 PM ET at Carter-Finley Stadium (natural turf) in Raleigh, NC. In the NCAAF odds on this game, the Seminoles are laying 3.5 points as the road favorite, with the total on the game posted at 58 points.

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Florida State Seminoles (6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) at North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Live at Carter-Finley Stadium

Raleigh, NC

Thursday, October 28 –  7:30 PM ET

TV:   ESPN

NCAAF Odds:

Florida State -3.5

North Carolina State +3.5

Total 58

Here are some of the trends as they might impact the NCAAF odds on this game:

• Florida State has won its last five games SU
• Florida State has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• Florida State has won four of its last six road games SU
• Florida State has played seven of its last ten road games OVER the total
• North Carolina State has won six of its last eight games SU
• North Carolina State has won four of its last five home games SU

Key stats for Florida State — The Seminoles have limited their opposition to less than three yards a rushing attempt. They are 20th in passing efficiency defense, but while they have allowed only seven TD passes, they have also picked off only six passes. FSU is the nation’s best when it comes to getting to the quarterback, registering 30 sacks, which gives them a margin of five sacks over anybody else. They are also fifth in tackles for loss. Their rushing game has improved over last year, and they average a robust 5.7 yards a carry.

Christian Ponder, who was talked about as a pre-season Heisman Trophy candidate and remains a top pro prospect, has thrown for 1187 yards and is 59th in passing efficiency.

Key stats for North Carolina State — The Wolfpack has covered four of six in the NCAAF odds, and one of the reasons for that is that the passing game has averaged 312.6 yards.

The man responsible for that is Russell Wilson, who’s thrown for 2124 yards and 18 touchdowns, but has tossed nine interceptions already, which is just three less than the total of his last two years combined. N.C. State averages 36 points a game but is only ranked 47th in total defense. They are also good at getting pressure on the quarterback, with 21 sacks. 

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence the NCAAF odds on this game:

• Florida State has won five of the last seven meetings SU
• North Carolina State has covered eight of the last nine meetings
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

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One of the things Russell Wilson has to do is get the ball out of his hand quickly. He may have a better chance at dealing with FSU’s pass rush than Ponder does with the Wolfpack’s, because Ponder has been known to hold on to the ball a little too long. He was victimized for three interceptions against Boston College, and a couple were brought back for touchdowns (one was called back). The recent interceptions of Wilson are certainly a concern; he’s had eight of them in the last three games and that reduces our confidence in N.C. State in the NCAAF odds.

N.C. State still plays with a lot of spirit, though, and it is obvious that the Wolfpack tries to dial its game up a notch when playing Florida State. They’ve been able to cover eight of the last nine meetings, including the last five, and Wilson, who can spread the ball around (ten receivers have caught a touchdown pass) can challenge this ‘Noles secondary. Ponder has not looked great in his last three outings (515 yards, 5 TD’s, 4 INT’s), so even though Jimbo Fisher’s team has a better running attack and some other fundamental advantages, we cite technical edges and a very hostile crowd as some things on N.C. State’s side, as we move with them in the NCAAF odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  NORTH CAROLINA STATE +3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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