NCAAF Odds – Florida Tries To Stay In SEC East Race

The Florida Gators have lost two straight SEC games and are now playing catch-up in the SEC East. A must-win situation faces Urban Meyer’s team this weekend in Gainesville as they are a seven-point favorite on the NCAAF lines.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Florida Gators
Saturday, October 16th – 7:05 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: ESPNU

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NCAAF Odds:

Mississippi State +7, Florida -7

Over the past four and a half seasons, few coaches have made as much of a mark on the college football scene as Urban Meyer. The former Bowling Green and Utah coach has won two national championships at Florida and established himself as one of the great coaches in Southeastern Conference history.

It is amazing to realize, then, that Florida and Meyer are in trouble. The Gators have lost two consecutive SEC games to fall out of the national championship derby and, more urgently, tumble out of first place in the SEC East.

If Meyer wants to get back to the SEC Championship Game and perhaps get a rematch against Alabama, his team needs to win this Saturday against Meyer’s former assistant, Dan Mullen.

NCAAF Odds Handicapping: What Mississippi State Has To Do To Win

Who needs the forward pass? Not the Mississippi State Bulldogs – that’s for sure.

Coach Dan Mullen’s club pounded the Houston Cougars 47-24 last Saturday, grinding out 409 yards on 57 carries. The Bulldogs chewed up the turf all game, keeping the Houston offense off the field by rushing for 20 first downs.

Junior running back Vick Ballard paced the Bulldogs’ relentless ground attack, rushing for 134 yards on only 14 attempts. Ballard also scored three of Mississippi State’s five rushing touchdowns.

Junior quarterback Chris Relf chipped in 96 yards rushing and a touchdown of his own before departing the game with an injury in the third quarter.

LSU – Florida’s previous opponent –established the ground game with considerable success, bolting for 161 yards and moving the ball with appreciable consistency.

If Mississippi State can get 160 rushing yards, avoid turnovers, and hit a few big plays in the passing game, the Bulldogs could very well score something in the neighborhood of 20 points.

Given the manifest struggles that have been afflicting Florida’s offense this season, 20 points could very well win this game for Mississippi State. If you told a Bulldog fan that MSU would ring up 20 on Saturday, that fan would take his chances.

NCAAF Odds Handicapping: What Florida Has To Do To Win

If the Gators want to win, offensive coordinator Steve Addazio – who has not filled in well for Mullen – needs to settle on a smart and sensible strategy. Florida has to use quarterback John Brantley as a pure passer who will drop back in the pocket and sling the ball down the field.

Whenever Florida has tried to get Brantley to run option plays, disaster has unfolded. Moreover, Brantley’s option adventures have led to lots of hard hits that have limited Brantley’s health and energy.

Florida needs to simplify its offense and recognize the strengths of not just Brantley, but backup running quarterback Trey Burton. If Addazio finds a better mix, Florida should score in the high 20s at the very least, which should – in turn – be enough to win this game.

NCAAF Odds Handicapping: Outlook & Pick

Mississippi State will try hard, but Florida has too much on the line in this game. The Gators will pull away in the second half and cover the number at home.

NCAAF Odds Pick: Florida -7