NCAAF Lock Alert – Baylor Bears to maul UConn Huskies

Connecticut (+10½) vs. Baylor (-10½)

O/U (44)

Saturday, September 19 5:00 PM ET

The Connecticut Huskies (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U) will be looking to get back in the win column when they take the field at Floyd Casey Stadium on Saturday at 5 PM ET while the Baylor Bears (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U) will be looking to keep their unblemished record intact.

Sophomore running back Jordan Todman scored the only touchdown for Connecticut in a 12-10 loss to North Carolina in Week 2.

The Huskies covered their NCAA football betting odds as 4.5-point road underdogs while the game’s final score played Under the posted O/U total of 41.5 points.

Baylor hung on to beat Wake Forest despite a late rally, hanging on to win 24-41 in Week 1 while covering the spread as 2.5-point road underdogs while the game’s final score played Under the 51-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAAF Free Pick.

• Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
• Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 vs. Big East.

NCAAF Odds

• Connecticut +10½ -110
• Baylor -10½ -110
• Over 44 -110
• Under 44 -110

Analysis: I really like the Huskies and the way they’ve improve their program under head coach Randy Edsall but I think they are going down hard in this contest to a Baylor team that has covered the spread in six consecutive games.

The Huskies have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU loss and an identical 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September, but sometimes you can’t follow the trends.

I’m backing the Baylor Bears to break those ATS numbers down a bit as they have compiled an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite while also going 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.

Baylor beat a good Wake Forest team this past Saturday despite playing on the road and should do the same at home to the offensively-challenged Huskies.

Take the Baylor Bears to cover the spread with room to spare.

NCAAF Free Picks: Baylor Bears -10½ Points