NCAAF Free Picks

TheUtah Utes must go on the road and defeat one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference if they want to fulfill all their dreams this season.They are a touchdown favorite at Falcon Stadium on the NCAAF odds this Saturday.

Utah Utes @ Air Force Falcons
Saturday, October 30th – 7:35 PM ET
Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
Broadcats: CBSCSN

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NCAAF Betting Lines: Utah -7, Air Force +7

Some teams see their seasons get derailed because they get distracted or overconfident. For the Utah Utes, a loss could very well occur this Saturday, but only because the opposing team is both talented and desperate.

Utah, like the TCU Horned Frogs, is just one win away from setting up not just the Mountain West game of the year on Nov. 6, but the non-automatic-qualifier game of 2010.

Yet, unlike TCU, the Utes shouldn’t be tempted to look ahead. Whereas the Horned Frogs take on a lowly UNLV squad this Saturday, coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utah roster will travel to Colorado Springs and take on an Air Force outfit that has rarely made life very easy for the Utes.

When Utah steps onto the gridiron at Falcon Stadium on Saturday evening, there will be no reason for the visiting team to dream of the date with TCU; a confrontation with the Air Force Academy is a big-enough game in its own right.

NCAAF Odds Handicapping: What Utah Has To Do To Win

A more seasoned Jordan Wynn comes back to quarterback the Utah offense this year after playing the last five games of the 2009 season. Interestingly enough, Wynn – as a freshman – did not play against Air Force last year.

Whittingham inserted him into the lineup the week following Utah’s shaky 23-16 overtime win over the Falcons. Wynn is therefore making his first-ever appearance against Air Force, and how he handles the moment as a sophomore will say a lot about the way this game will unfold.

Wynn needs to make mature decisions and settle for the easy six-yard gain instead of forcing a ball 20 yards downfield into double coverage. A steady and intelligent game from Wynn will enable Utah to… well… win.

NCAAF Odds Handicapping: What Air Force Has To Do To Win

Here’s the signature fact that towers above everything else as the week unfolds for both the Utes and the Falcons: The last time either game in this series was decided by more than eight points was 2004, the year Utah ran the table in the regular season and earned a Fiesta Bowl bid against Pittsburgh.

Indeed, it took Urban Meyer’s best Utah team to beat the Falcons by 14 points, 49-35, when Alex Smith was a lauded quarterback and not an NFL failure. In the five seasons since that decisive victory by the Utes, these teams have engaged in fiercely-contested struggles.

In 2005, Utah barely survived the Falcons, 38-35, and then pulled another three-point win out of the fire in 2006, 17-14. In 2007, the year before an improving Utah team ripened into form, the Academy caught the Utes by a 20-12 score, but in 2008, Whittingham’s best Utah club fought its way past coach Troy Calhoun’s Falcons in Colorado Springs by a 30-23 count.

Last year, these two schools traded blows into overtime in Salt Lake City. Utah scored a touchdown to start the first overtime inning, and then the Utes’ defense rose up to stop quarterback Tim Jefferson and Falcons’ offense on the subsequent possession, sealing a riveting if ragged 23-16 win.

Air Force knows it can play with Utah. The Falcons need to shut down the big play against a Utah offense that’s scored at least 56 points in four of its last five games.

Air Force must also control the ball on the ground to keep the Utah offense off the field. Everyone knows what the game keys are; Air Force must simply execute at a high level. It’s easy to say, but it will be hard to do.

Handicapping: Outlook & NCAAF Odds

Air Force will indeed challenge Utah, but the Falcons lack the offensive diversity Utah possesses. Air Force has also been inconsistent of late, and a blowout loss suffered at TCU can’t help the Falcons’confidence level this week.

This game will be tough through the first three quarters, but Utah’s offense will pull away late and cover the spread.

NCAAF Odds Pick: Utah -7